Oncofusion

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Mechanismstrong confidence 4 of 5: Replicated in peer-reviewed work by more than one group.Q52-spine

The KMT2A-fusion causal chain: six links, one measured ordering, and two arms that are parallel rather than sequential

also called causal chain · the spine · KMT2A fusion causal chain · MLL fusion mechanism chain

This is the step-by-step account of how a KMT2A fusion protein turns a blood cell into leukaemia, and - just as importantly - which of those steps has actually been measured and which is only assumed. Four of the arrows in the usual picture have never been timed, two of the steps happen side by side rather than one after the other, and part of what today's drug does is not fusion biology at all.

The same thing, for a scientist

Seventeen entries in this graph declare membership of `mechanism-kmt2a-fusion-causal-chain` through `data.chain`, and until now the node did not exist. This is that node, written as an argument rather than a digest. The chain is: (1) the retained KMT2A N-terminus parks the protein on unmethylated-CpG promoters [E1]; (2) menin and LEDGF are required for transformation [E2][E3]; (3) the partner supplies constitutive super-elongation-complex capture [E6][E22]; (4) DOT1L deposits H3K79me2/3 at the same loci [E8][E9]; (5) an output programme headed by HOXA9/MEIS1 is sustained [E10]; (6) self-renewal is held on and differentiation is blocked [E12]. Every one of those six is supported as a REQUIREMENT. **Only one arrow between them has ever been measured as an ordering** - elongation change precedes loss of the active chromatin landscape, at 15 minutes, in a degron-tagged MLL::AF9 [E14]. **Steps 3 and 4 are not sequential at all**: DOT1L-AF9 does not stably associate with AF9-AF4-P-TEFb [E7], and the AHD ligands compete for one site, so the elongation and methylation arms are parallel and mutually exclusive. **Link 2 is required but positionally dispensable for the fusion** [E4], and it is not the determinant of oncogenicity: KMT2B carries an equivalent menin motif and cannot be made into a transforming fusion, the CXXC/post-CXXC address being the difference [E5]. **Part of a menin inhibitor's effect runs through wild-type KMT2A/B and the polycomb balance** [E16], and part of its output is executed by the host cell's PRC1.1 rather than by reversal of fusion activity [E17][E18]. **Link 2 is not even a fixed interface**: blocking guanine-nucleotide supply lowers LEDGF and menin protein and impairs complex formation [E19]. And the chain is not one chain - within t(4;11) a HOXA-low infant subgroup exists in which link 5 as written is largely absent [E20]. The clinical endpoint the whole argument must be consistent with is CR+CRh 22.8% [E15].

Go deeper
The chain link by link, and what each arrow rests on
#linkentrythe STEP isthe ARROW to the next step issystem it was measured in
1unmethylated-CpG addressmechanism-fusion-dna-targeting-cxxc-athooksmeasured - CXXC point mutants abolish transformation 1inferred - no experiment removes CXXC binding and measures menin/LEDGF occupancymurine myeloid, engineered constructs
2menin/LEDGFmechanism-menin-ledgf-chromatin-tetheringmeasured as a requirement 23; contradicted as a position for the fusion 4inferred - no experiment removes the menin contact and measures SEC occupancy with ordering resolvedmurine myeloid; human clinical for the drug 15
3SEC/AEP capturemechanism-sec-elongation-hijackmeasured - co-purification from several chimeras plus knockdown 622not a link at all - the DOT1L arm is a separate, competing assembly 7human lines, reconstitution, murine transformation
4H3K79me2/3mechanism-dot1l-h3k79-methylationmeasured 89inferred - mark loss and programme loss are not time-resolved against each othermurine MLL-AF9; one murine MLL-AF4 model 9
5HOXA9/MEIS1 outputmechanism-hoxa9-meis1-output-programmeasured for maintenance 10; refuted for initiation 11inferred, and buffered - no allelic dose titration existshuman lines (maintenance); murine knockout (initiation)
6self-renewal on, differentiation blockedmechanism-self-renewal-differentiation-blockmeasured 12, and reversible on removal 1314terminalmurine myeloid

Four of the five internal arrows are inferred from requirement rather than measured as ordering, and a fifth is refuted as an ordering altogether. A requirement experiment answers is this needed?; an ordering experiment answers does this cause that, and in which direction? This chain contains exactly one experiment of the second kind 14, on one fusion, for one pair of events.

That is the single most useful sentence this entry can offer a reader: the chain is well evidenced as a set of requirements and almost entirely unevidenced as a sequence.

Break 1: steps 3 and 4 are parallel and mutually exclusive, not sequential

The usual telling says the fusion recruits the super elongation complex and then DOT1L methylates H3K79. The biochemistry says otherwise. In reconstituted minimal complexes, DOT1L forms a stable complex with AF9 that does not detectably interact with AF9-AF4-P-TEFb 7. The retained AF9 AHD binds AF4, DOT1L, BCOR and CBX8 at one mutually exclusive site (mechanism-bcor-is-the-ahd-contact-mll-af9-cannot-lose, interface-af9-ahd-dot1l-three-sites-2mv7), so a single fusion molecule cannot be doing both at once.

This is not a detail of nomenclature. It means the two most-drugged links of this chain are alternatives competing for one surface, not consecutive stages. It predicts that menin and DOT1L inhibition should be complementary rather than redundant, which is what a head-to-head panel shows 21 and what the combination data show 17. The figure should be drawn as a fork after step 2, not as a line.

For KMT2A::AFF1 the fork sits in a different place, because AFF1 is itself an SEC component and DOT1L recruitment is indirect. A single chain figure hides that partner dependence, and this graph records it separately (concept-what-transfers-from-an-mll-af9-result-and-what-does-not).

Break 2: the menin interface is a requirement, and it is not the determinant

Menin is required for initiation and for maintenance 2, and it is the target of the only approved drug in this disease 15. It is nonetheless not what makes KMT2A oncogenic. KMT2B carries an equivalent N-terminal menin-binding motif, and fusion constructs built on it cannot transform; domain swaps place the difference in the CXXC and post-CXXC region - the address, not the clamp 5.

The positional half of link 2 is weaker still. LEDGF knockdown decreases wild-type MLL occupancy and increases fusion occupancy, and a LEDGF-binding-dead MLL-AF9 still associates with its target genes 4. The familiar image of menin and LEDGF holding the fusion on chromatin is therefore an inference from the wild-type protein transplanted onto the fusion. What is established is that the module is required. Where it acts, and on which molecule, is not.

What this does and does not do to the lab's central hypothesis. It does not weaken the menin interface as a target: the clinical responses and the MEN1 interface resistance mutations settle that it is one 15[E4 counter-evidence]. It weakens the interface as an explanation. A reader who takes the chain at face value concludes that disrupting menin disrupts the thing that makes the fusion oncogenic. It does not. It disrupts something the fusion needs - which is a sufficient reason to drug it and an insufficient reason to call it the mechanism.

Break 3: part of the drug's effect is not fusion biology, and part of its output is executed by the host cell

Two published results put a large asterisk on the therapeutic arm of this chain, and neither is represented in the six-step figure.

Upstream. Menin loss, and pharmacological menin inhibition, phenocopy polycomb disruption and paradoxically activate bivalent genes, acting through the Menin-KMT2A/B axis that maintains bivalency in normal cells 16. Nothing in any published menin-inhibitor experiment separates the fusion-directed component from this wild-type-directed one. The measurement that would begin to separate them - H3K27me3 - exists only in the GENETIC arm: in 16 H3K27me3 CUT&Tag was performed in MEN1-knockout versus control cells, where total H3K27me3 was unchanged and occupancy fell at bivalent non-Menin-bound promoters, while the VTP50469 arm of the same paper carries Menin ChIP-seq and RNA-seq and no H3K27me3. No study has reported H3K27me3 under a menin INHIBITOR in any system, which is a narrower and better-bounded statement than this graph has been making; see ana-h3k27me3-under-menin-inhibition-the-absence-is-narrower-than-stated.

Downstream. The silencing that follows menin inhibition is an active deposition of H2AK119ub by PRC1.1, driven by progressive loss of DOT1L-mediated H3K79 methylation 17; and loss of PRC1.1 subunits (PCGF1, BCOR) confers menin-inhibitor resistance by reactivating non-canonical menin targets including MYC 18. So the last arrow of the chain, under drug, runs through a complex the fusion never touched. The patient's polycomb state is part of the drug's mechanism, not a modifier of it.

The two papers also disagree about PRC1.1's position - effector in one, gatekeeper in the other - and no experiment tests them against each other. This entry does not resolve that; it records it as an open conflict.

Break 4: link 2 is not a fixed interface; metabolism reaches it

Every drawing of this chain renders link 2 as a protein-protein contact with a small molecule wedged into it. Blocking guanine-nucleotide biosynthesis reduces LEDGF and menin protein, impairs MLL complex formation, drives differentiation and sensitises to menin inhibition 19. The interface is therefore in part a function of nucleotide supply and ribosome biogenesis, and its abundance is a variable the chain has no slot for.

The honest statement is narrower than the headline. This graph's metabolism beat records an alternative, SAMHD1-centred reading in which IMPDH sensitivity is not KMT2A-specific at all (concept-metabolic-dependency-consequence-or-independent-kmt2a). What is established is that a metabolic input to link 2 exists; its specificity to KMT2A-rearranged disease is contested.

Break 5: it is not one chain, and it was not measured in the index disease

Two populations. Within paediatric t(4;11), infants with breakpoints in introns 11/12 run low HOXA and non-infants with breakpoints in introns 9/10 run high HOXA 20. Link 5 as written is the high-HOXA version. The disease this laboratory studies - infant KMT2A::AFF1 - is enriched for the subgroup in which that link is weakest, while HOXA transcripts are simultaneously the field's default pharmacodynamic readout of fusion activity.

One species, one lineage. Links 1, 5-initiation and 6, and the whole reversibility argument, are murine MLL-AF9 or MLL-ENL myeloid results 111121314. The only in-vivo AFF1-backbone evidence anywhere in the chain is also a mouse 9. No degron model of KMT2A::AFF1 exists, so the chain's one ordering measurement 14 has never been attempted on the index fusion.

This matters more than a generic model caveat because the three documented synthesis failures in this project are exactly: compressing an abstract into a mechanism, generalising a myeloid MLL-AF9 result to infant B-lineage KMT2A::AFF1, and treating one unreplicated paper as established. A six-step chain is the natural vehicle for all three, which is why every row of the table above carries its system.

What the seventeen member entries actually are

Six of the seventeen carry a data.step number and are the links above. Eleven do not. Those eleven are not stages; they are constraints on the chain, and putting all seventeen under one data.chain key conceals the difference:

  • What is lost rather than gained - mechanism-phd3-cyp33-repressor-switch-lost, mechanism-set-loss-neomorph-not-haploinsufficiency
  • The substrate the chain runs on rather than a step in it - mechanism-kmt2a-r-dna-methylation-signature, mechanism-bivalent-primed-chromatin-fusion-targets, mechanism-enhancer-usage-and-hijacking-kmt2a-r
  • Contested or negative mechanism - mechanism-condensates-load-bearing-or-correlative, mechanism-polycomb-prc1-prc2-cbx8
  • Dose and population - mechanism-hoxa9-meis1-dose-requirement, mechanism-hoxa-high-vs-hoxa-low
  • Kinetics and therapeutic reading - mechanism-fusion-dependency-reversibility-kinetics, mechanism-rate-limiting-steps-and-compensation

All seventeen were written by one Queen, in one cycle, on one day, in one folder. That does not make them wrong, and it does change what 'seventeen entries demand this node' means; the measurement is in ana-a-forward-reference-is-authored-not-demanded.

What would have to be true for this chain to be wrong

Falsifiers, not caveats:

  1. If a KMT2A::AFF1 degron showed H3K79me2 loss preceding the elongation change, the ordering carried over from MLL::AF9 14 is fusion-specific and the chain's internal direction is partner-dependent. Designed as exp-ordering-of-elongation-and-h3k79-loss-in-kmt2a-aff1.
  2. If a menin inhibitor's transcriptional output were reproduced by degrading wild-type KMT2A and KMT2B in a fusion-negative cell, link 2's therapeutic interpretation is substantially about normal biology 16.
  3. If PRC1.1 loss abolished the silencing that follows menin inhibition, as 17 predicts, while also conferring resistance, as 18 reports, then one of the two published readings is incomplete and the therapeutic arm needs rewriting either way.
  4. If HOXA-low infant t(4;11) patients responded to menin inhibition as well as HOXA-high patients, link 5 is not on the causal path to the drug's effect 20.
  5. If a second laboratory failed to reproduce the LEDGF occupancy asymmetry 4, the positional reading of link 2 returns and break 2 weakens by half.
Facts and figures
chain IDmechanism-kmt2a-fusion-causal-chain
n members17
n members with step number6
n arrows measured1
n arrows inferred4
n arrows refuted as serial2
related analysisana-the-chain-cannot-be-system-audited-from-the-graphs-own-fields
related absenceabsence-h3k79me2-decay-half-life-never-measured
related experimentexp-ordering-of-elongation-and-h3k79-loss-in-kmt2a-aff1
related correctionana-h3k27me3-under-menin-inhibition-the-absence-is-narrower-than-stated
steps
unmethylated-CpG address1.000unmethylated-CpG address: 1menin/LEDGF requirement2.000menin/LEDGF requirement: 2constitutive SEC/AEP capt…3.000constitutive SEC/AEP capture: 3H3K79me2/3 deposition4.000H3K79me2/3 deposition: 4HOXA9/MEIS1 output progra…5.000HOXA9/MEIS1 output programme: 5self-renewal on, differen…6.000self-renewal on, differentiation blocked: 6
members
[
  "mechanism-fusion-dna-targeting-cxxc-athooks",
  "mechanism-menin-ledgf-chromatin-tethering",
  "mechanism-sec-elongation-hijack",
  "mechanism-dot1l-h3k79-methylation",
  "mechanism-hoxa9-meis1-output-program",
  "mechanism-self-renewal-differentiation-block",
  "mechanism-bivalent-primed-chromatin-fusion-targets",
  "mechanism-condensates-load-bearing-or-correlative",
  "mechanism-enhancer-usage-and-hijacking-kmt2a-r",
  "mechanism-fusion-dependency-reversibility-kinetics",
  "mechanism-hoxa-high-vs-hoxa-low",
  "mechanism-hoxa9-meis1-dose-requirement",
  "mechanism-kmt2a-r-dna-methylation-signature",
  "mechanism-phd3-cyp33-repressor-switch-lost",
  "mechanism-polycomb-prc1-prc2-cbx8",
  "mechanism-rate-limiting-steps-and-compensation",
  "mechanism-set-loss-neomorph-not-haploinsufficiency"
]
steps — the numbers behind the chart
[
  {
    "step": 1,
    "node": "mechanism-fusion-dna-targeting-cxxc-athooks",
    "label": "unmethylated-CpG address",
    "step_status": "measured",
    "evidence": [
      "E1"
    ],
    "system": "murine myeloid, engineered MLL fusion constructs"
  },
  {
    "step": 2,
    "node": "mechanism-menin-ledgf-chromatin-tethering",
    "label": "menin/LEDGF requirement",
    "step_status": "measured as requirement; positional role for the fusion contradicted",
    "evidence": [
      "E2",
      "E3",
      "E4"
    ],
    "system": "murine myeloid; human clinical for the drug"
  },
  {
    "step": 3,
    "node": "mechanism-sec-elongation-hijack",
    "label": "constitutive SEC/AEP capture",
    "step_status": "measured",
    "evidence": [
      "E6",
      "E22"
    ],
    "system": "human lines, reconstitution, murine transformation"
  },
  {
    "step": 4,
    "node": "mechanism-dot1l-h3k79-methylation",
    "label": "H3K79me2/3 deposition",
    "step_status": "measured",
    "evidence": [
      "E8",
      "E9"
    ],
    "system": "murine MLL-AF9; one murine MLL-AF4 model"
  },
  {
    "step": 5,
    "node": "mechanism-hoxa9-meis1-output-program",
    "label": "HOXA9/MEIS1 output programme",
    "step_status": "measured for maintenance; refuted for initiation",
    "evidence": [
      "E10",
      "E11"
    ],
    "system": "human lines (maintenance); murine germline knockout (initiation)"
  },
  {
    "step": 6,
    "node": "mechanism-self-renewal-differentiation-block",
    "label": "self-renewal on, differentiation blocked",
    "step_status": "measured",
    "evidence": [
      "E12",
      "E13",
      "E14"
    ],
    "system": "murine myeloid"
  }
]
arrows
[
  {
    "from": "1",
    "to": "2",
    "status": "inferred",
    "why": "no experiment removes CXXC binding and measures menin/LEDGF occupancy at the same loci"
  },
  {
    "from": "2",
    "to": "3",
    "status": "inferred",
    "why": "no experiment removes the menin contact and measures SEC occupancy with the ordering resolved"
  },
  {
    "from": "2",
    "to": "4",
    "status": "parallel-not-serial",
    "why": "DOT1L-AF9 does not stably associate with AF9-AF4-P-TEFb [E7]; the AHD ligands are mutually exclusive"
  },
  {
    "from": "3",
    "to": "4",
    "status": "refuted-as-serial",
    "why": "steps 3 and 4 are competing assemblies on one retained partner surface, not consecutive links"
  },
  {
    "from": "4",
    "to": "5",
    "status": "inferred",
    "why": "mark loss and programme loss have never been time-resolved against each other"
  },
  {
    "from": "5",
    "to": "6",
    "status": "inferred-and-buffered",
    "why": "no allelic dose titration of HOXA9 or MEIS1 exists in KMT2A-fusion leukaemia"
  },
  {
    "from": "acute fusion removal (degron)",
    "to": "3",
    "status": "measured",
    "why": "degron MLL::AF9: elongation change at 15 min precedes loss of the active chromatin landscape [E14] - the only ordering measurement in the chain"
  }
]
breaks
[
  "steps 3 and 4 are parallel and mutually exclusive, not sequential",
  "link 2 is required but positionally dispensable for the fusion, and is not the determinant of oncogenicity (KMT2B counterexample)",
  "part of a menin inhibitor's effect runs through wild-type KMT2A/B and the polycomb balance, and no study measures H3K27me3",
  "part of the drug's output is deposited by host PRC1.1, whose loss also confers resistance",
  "link 2 has a metabolic input (guanine-nucleotide supply) that the chain does not represent",
  "the chain describes at least two populations (HOXA-high and HOXA-low t(4;11))",
  "almost all in-vivo evidence is murine MLL-AF9/MLL-ENL myeloid; no KMT2A::AFF1 degron exists"
]
clinical endpoint
{
  "trial": "AUGMENT-101 phase 2 KMT2A-r portion",
  "nct": "NCT04065399",
  "cr_crh_pct": 22.8,
  "orr_pct": 63.2,
  "n_treated": 94,
  "n_efficacy_evaluable": 57,
  "evidence": "E15"
}
rate limiting and fusion selective links
[
  2,
  4
]
unmeasured constants
[
  "H3K79me2 decay half-life after DOT1L or fusion removal",
  "EC50 of HOXA9/MEIS1 dose for programme collapse",
  "time from menin-inhibitor target engagement to PRC1.1 H2AK119ub deposition"
]
How this could bite us back
  • The drug acts on a link that is required but is not the determinant of oncogenicity, so on-target engagement can be complete while the fusion retains its address; clinical MEN1 interface mutations and on-target-but-resistant samples are both reported.
  • Part of the therapeutic output is executed by host PRC1.1; a patient whose PRC1.1 is impaired - BCOR and PCGF1 are recurrently mutated in myeloid disease - may be intrinsically resistant before the first dose.
  • Menin inhibition also perturbs wild-type KMT2A/B and the polycomb balance in normal cells, a toxicity surface the fusion-centred chain does not predict and that no trial has been designed to detect.
  • Because links 3 and 4 compete for one surface rather than acting in series, blocking one can increase occupancy of the other; combination design should assume redistribution rather than simple additivity.
  • Differentiation syndrome scales with efficacy at link 6 and is mechanism-linked: an intervention that works better at the terminal step should be expected to be more toxic there, not less.
  • If link 2's abundance is set by nucleotide supply, then any co-medication or nutritional state that alters guanine-nucleotide pools is a hidden pharmacodynamic variable for a menin inhibitor.
Still open
  1. Does the 15-minute elongation-before-chromatin ordering hold for KMT2A::AFF1? No degron model of the index fusion exists, so the chain's only ordering measurement has never been attempted on it.
  2. What separates the fusion-directed from the wild-type-KMT2A/B-directed component of a menin inhibitor's effect? An H3K27me3 timecourse under the drug would begin to; the only H3K27me3 data in this literature come from genetic MEN1 knockout, and the genetic and pharmacological arms are not interchangeable.
  3. Is PRC1.1 the effector of menin-inhibitor-induced silencing, the gatekeeper whose loss confers resistance, or both at different loci? Two recent papers take opposite positions and no experiment tests them together.
  4. Do HOXA-low infant t(4;11) patients respond to menin inhibition as well as HOXA-high patients? If they do, link 5 is not on the causal path to the drug's effect.
  5. What is the decay half-life of H3K79me2 after fusion or DOT1L removal? It sets the interval between target engagement and effect and has never been measured.
  6. Would a second laboratory reproduce the LEDGF occupancy asymmetry - wild-type MLL down, fusion up - on which break 2 half rests? It is a single-laboratory result in a single murine system.
Every source behind this entry (22)
  1. E1strong confidence 4 of 5: Replicated in peer-reviewed work by more than one group.paper

    Point mutations in the KMT2A CXXC domain that abolish binding to non-methylated CpG DNA abolish target recognition, transactivation and myeloid transformation by an MLL oncoprotein, without disturbing subnuclear localisation.

    What this evidence cannot show

    Abstract read 2026-09-20. Murine myeloid progenitors, engineered constructs, 2004 methodology; a transformation assay, not a measurement of occupancy kinetics. This establishes that link 1 is REQUIRED. It says nothing about what link 1 hands to link 2, and no experiment in this chain measures that hand-off.

    Evidence that argues against this (1)
    • The same targeting module is present in wild-type KMT2A, which is not leukaemogenic, so CXXC binding is necessary and by itself carries no oncogenic information. Work on MOZ-rearranged leukaemia shows wild-type KMT2A performing the identical unmethylated-CpG promoter activation through AEP/SEC, DOT1L and p300/CBP, i.e. the fusion inherits a normal circuit rather than creating one. Miyamoto R et al. 2020
  2. E2established confidence 5 of 5: Multiple independent lines of evidence; treated as settled in the field.paper

    Oncogenic KMT2A fusions retain a high-affinity N-terminal menin-binding motif; the interaction is required to initiate KMT2A-mediated leukaemogenesis, menin is required for maintenance of KMT2A-associated but not other oncogene-induced myeloid transformation, and acute menin ablation reverses the differentiation arrest.

    The menin tumor suppressor protein is an essential oncogenic cofactor for MLL-associated leukemogenesis. · Yokoyama A, Somervaille TC, Smith KS, Rozenblatt-Rosen O, et al. · Cell 2005
    What this evidence cannot show

    Abstract read 2026-09-20. Murine myeloid models with conditional Men1 alleles. The requirement is genetic and acute. The POSITIONAL claim that menin holds the fusion at its target loci is a separate proposition and is the weaker one (see E4).

    Evidence that argues against this (1)
    • Menin is required, but requirement is not specificity: KMT2B carries an equivalent N-terminal menin motif and cannot be made into a transforming fusion, so the menin contact cannot be what makes KMT2A oncogenic. Bach C et al. 2009
  3. E3strong confidence 4 of 5: Replicated in peer-reviewed work by more than one group.paper

    Menin acts as a molecular adaptor physically linking KMT2A proteins to LEDGF/PSIP1, and LEDGF is required for both KMT2A-dependent transcription and leukaemic transformation.

    What this evidence cannot show

    Abstract read 2026-09-20. Biochemistry plus transformation assays in murine cells. Establishes a three-way requirement; it does not establish that the module acts as a POSITIONAL clamp on the fusion, which is the form in which the chain usually states it.

    Evidence that argues against this (1)
    • In MLL-transformed progenitors, LEDGF knockdown DECREASES wild-type MLL occupancy and INCREASES MLL-fusion occupancy, and an MLL-AF9 F129A mutant unable to bind LEDGF still associates with MLL target genes - LEDGF is required for retention of the wild-type protein, not of the fusion. Zhu L et al. 2016
  4. E4strong confidence 4 of 5: Replicated in peer-reviewed work by more than one group.paper

    In LEDGF-knockdown MLL-transformed cells, occupancy of wild-type MLL DECREASES while occupancy of the MLL fusion protein consistently INCREASES at the same target loci, shown for MLL-AF9 and also for MLL-AF10 and MLL-ENL; and an MLL-AF9 F129A missense mutant that cannot interact with LEDGF retains the ability to associate with MLL target genes.

    ASH1L Links Histone H3 Lysine 36 Dimethylation to MLL Leukemia. · Zhu L, Li Q, Wong SH, Huang M, et al. · Cancer Discov 2016
    What this evidence cannot show

    **Full text read 2026-09-20** via efetch db=pmc on PMC4930721 (Europe PMC fullTextXML returned HTTP 500; brief rule on the four routes), 61,451 characters after tag-stripping then entity-unescaping. The result is in the body, not the abstract - the abstract is about ASH1L and H3K36me2 - which is why it is easy to miss and why this entry quotes it. Verbatim: *"a missense mutant of MLL-AF9 (F129A) that cannot interact with LEDGF retained an ability to associate with MLL target genes"* and *"Decreased occupancies of WT MLL and increased occupancies of MLL fusion proteins were also observed for MLL-AF10 and MLL-ENL in LEDGF knockdown cells"*. This is the most important qualification on link 2 in this chain and it is usually omitted: the menin/LEDGF module is functionally required for leukaemia while being POSITIONALLY dispensable for the fusion, so the familiar clamp picture is an inference from the wild-type protein transplanted onto the fusion. It replicates across three fusions within one paper and one laboratory; it has not been repeated by an independent group, and not in a human KMT2A::AFF1 line.

    Evidence that argues against this (1)
    • The menin contact is nonetheless the target of the only approved drug in this disease, and clinical resistance arises through MEN1 mutations at the drug-menin interface, so whatever the positional mechanism, disrupting this contact does collapse the programme in patients. Perner F et al. 2023
  5. E5strong confidence 4 of 5: Replicated in peer-reviewed work by more than one group.paper

    Fusion proteins built on Mll2/KMT2B, described by the authors as the closest relative of MLL, are incapable of transforming haematopoietic cells; domain swaps identify the CxxC zinc-binding region and an adjacent post-CxxC basic stretch as the determinants, and the two proteins occupy largely non-overlapping target gene repertoires in cells despite near-identical DNA binding in vitro.

    Alterations of the CxxC domain preclude oncogenic activation of mixed-lineage leukemia 2. · Bach C, Mueller D, Buhl S, Garcia-Cuellar MP, et al. · Oncogene 2009
    What this evidence cannot show

    Abstract read 2026-09-20; the fetched record carries no PMCID, so full text was not obtained. 'Mll2' here is KMT2B (Q9UMN6, 2,715 aa), not KMT2D - resolved by the authors' description of it as the closest relative of MLL, per brief rule 66. Engineered constructs in murine cells; a negative transformation result in one assay system with one set of constructs. This is the load-bearing argument that the menin interface is a requirement and not the determinant.

    Evidence that argues against this (1)
    • KMT2B is not irrelevant to this disease: Mll2 rather than Mll1 is reported to sustain established MLL-rearranged AML in trans, so the paralogue matters - just not as a fusion backbone. Chen Y et al. 2017
  6. E6strong confidence 4 of 5: Replicated in peer-reviewed work by more than one group.paper

    Purification of several commonly occurring KMT2A chimeras recovered the super elongation complex from all of them; AFF4 is required for SEC stability and for transcription by poised RNA polymerase II, and AFF4 knockdown reduces KMT2A-chimera target gene expression.

    What this evidence cannot show

    Abstract read 2026-09-20. Biochemical purification plus knockdown in human cells. Establishes co-association and requirement. It does not order SEC recruitment relative to menin tethering or to H3K79 deposition, and no published experiment does.

    Evidence that argues against this (1)
    • AFF1-SEC and AFF4-SEC are distinct complexes with largely non-overlapping gene target specificity, so 'the SEC' in this chain is at least two different assemblies and a result obtained on one does not transfer to the other. Lu H et al. 2015
  7. E7strong confidence 4 of 5: Replicated in peer-reviewed work by more than one group.paper

    In reconstituted minimal complexes DOT1L forms a stable complex with AF9 that does not detectably interact with AF9-AF4-P-TEFb complexes, while AF4 and AFF4 independently mediate P-TEFb association with AF9.

    Function of leukemogenic mixed lineage leukemia 1 (MLL) fusion proteins through distinct partner protein complexes. · Biswas D, Milne TA, Basrur V, Kim J, et al. · Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2011
    What this evidence cannot show

    Abstract read 2026-09-20. Reconstitution from purified components, so the negative concerns a stable biochemical association and not co-occupancy in cells. It is nonetheless the result that breaks the chain metaphor: the elongation arm and the methylation arm are separate assemblies on the same partner surface, not consecutive links.

    Evidence that argues against this (1)
    • The AF9 AHD binds AF4, DOT1L, BCOR and CBX8 at one mutually exclusive site, so the two arms are not merely distinct - they compete directly for the retained partner surface, which makes a serial ordering of them incoherent rather than merely unmeasured. Schmidt CR et al. 2020
  8. E8established confidence 5 of 5: Multiple independent lines of evidence; treated as settled in the field.paper

    Abnormal chromatin at MLL-AF9 target loci in leukaemia stem cells was found only for H3K79me2; Dot1l inactivation downregulated direct MLL-AF9 targets and the translocation-associated signature while global gene expression remained largely unaffected.

    MLL-rearranged leukemia is dependent on aberrant H3K79 methylation by DOT1L. · Bernt KM, Zhu N, Sinha AU, Vempati S, et al. · Cancer Cell 2011
    What this evidence cannot show

    Abstract read 2026-09-20. Murine MLL-AF9, myeloid. The selectivity is the strong part. That H3K79me2 MAINTAINS the programme rather than merely marking it is supported by the Dot1l loss experiment, but the causal ordering between mark loss and transcriptional loss is not resolved by it.

    Evidence that argues against this (1)
    • Pinometostat reduced H3K79 methylation as intended in 51 adults and produced only two complete remissions, both in t(11;19), so removing the mark pharmacologically does not reproduce the genetic result, and the link from mark to programme is weaker in humans than in mice. Stein EM et al. 2018
  9. E9established confidence 5 of 5: Multiple independent lines of evidence; treated as settled in the field.paper

    A conditional Mll-AF4 mouse develops B-precursor ALL or AML whose expression profile overlaps human KMT2A-rearranged ALL, human KMT2A-rearranged ALLs are distinguishable from other ALLs by their H3K79 profiles, and shRNA suppression of DOT1L reduces the associated programme.

    H3K79 methylation profiles define murine and human MLL-AF4 leukemias. · Krivtsov AV, Feng Z, Lemieux ME, Faber J, et al. · Cancer Cell 2008
    What this evidence cannot show

    Abstract read 2026-09-20. This is the ONLY link in the chain measured on an AFF1 backbone in a lymphoid context, and it is still a mouse. Every other step with in-vivo evidence has it in MLL-AF9 or MLL-ENL myeloid models.

    Evidence that argues against this (1)
    • Non-canonical H3K79me2-dependent pathways promote survival of KMT2A-rearranged cells, with internally calibrated ChIP showing paradoxical H3K4me3 increases and H3K27me3 loss at pinometostat-downregulated loci, so the mark's output is not a single programme-maintenance function. Richter WF et al. 2021
  10. E10strong confidence 4 of 5: Replicated in peer-reviewed work by more than one group.paper

    shRNA HOXA9 depletion causes proliferation arrest and apoptosis specifically in KMT2A-rearranged human lines (7 of 17 tested, p=0.007) and preferentially in KMT2A-rearranged primary AMLs (p=0.01), and co-downregulates HOXA10, MEIS1, PBX3 and MEF2C.

    HOXA9 is required for survival in human MLL-rearranged acute leukemias. · Faber J, Krivtsov AV, Stubbs MC, Wright R, et al. · Blood 2009
    What this evidence cannot show

    Abstract read 2026-09-20. Human lines and primary samples; a maintenance result. shRNA is partial depletion, so it bounds the programme's dose sensitivity only loosely.

    Evidence that argues against this (1)
    • Hoxa9-null Mll-AF9 knock-in mice develop myeloid leukaemia with similar incidence and time course to Hoxa9-competent mice, only with a more immature phenotype - HOXA9 is required for maintenance of established human disease and dispensable for initiation in mouse. Kumar AR et al. 2004
  11. E11strong confidence 4 of 5: Replicated in peer-reviewed work by more than one group.paper

    Mll-AF9 knock-in mice with or without Hoxa9 both develop myeloid leukaemia with similar incidence and time course, the Hoxa9-null leukaemias being more immature; Mll-AF9 overexpresses Hoxa5, a6, a7, a9 and a10 and no single one is necessary.

    Hoxa9 influences the phenotype but not the incidence of Mll-AF9 fusion gene leukemia. · Kumar AR, Hudson WA, Chen W, Nishiuchi R, et al. · Blood 2004
    What this evidence cannot show

    Abstract read 2026-09-20. Germline knockout, so developmental compensation cannot be excluded, and the result concerns initiation rather than maintenance. It is nonetheless the clearest statement that link 5 is a buffered module and not a single-gene bottleneck.

    Evidence that argues against this (1)
    • In human KMT2A-rearranged leukaemia HOXA9 depletion kills selectively, so the mouse-initiation result must not be read as 'HOXA9 does not matter' - the two experiments ask different questions of different species at different disease stages. Faber J et al. 2009
  12. E12established confidence 5 of 5: Multiple independent lines of evidence; treated as settled in the field.paper

    Leukaemia stem cells from MLL-AF9 leukaemias initiated in committed granulocyte-macrophage progenitors transferred leukaemia from as few as four cells and retained a GMP-like immunophenotype and global expression profile with a subset of HSC-restricted genes re-activated.

    Transformation from committed progenitor to leukaemia stem cell initiated by MLL-AF9. · Krivtsov AV, Twomey D, Feng Z, Stubbs MC, et al. · Nature 2006
    What this evidence cannot show

    Abstract read 2026-09-20. Murine, myeloid, retroviral MLL-AF9. The terminal state of the chain in the index human disease - infant B-lineage KMT2A::AFF1 - is not established by this or by any equivalent experiment.

    Evidence that argues against this (1)
    • Within paediatric t(4;11) there are two subgroups - infants with LOW HOXA expression and breakpoints in introns 11/12, and non-infants with high HOXA - so a single terminal programme cannot be assumed across the population this chain claims to describe. Trentin L et al. 2009
  13. E13strong confidence 4 of 5: Replicated in peer-reviewed work by more than one group.paper

    In a doxycycline-repressible MLL-ENL model, leukaemic cells that had acquired additional genetic abnormalities and gave shorter-latency disease in secondary recipients nevertheless remained dependent on MLL-ENL, and its ablation caused regression of established disease.

    What this evidence cannot show

    Abstract read 2026-09-20. Murine, myeloid, transgene-level expression. This is the strongest single argument that the chain is causal rather than correlative, and it is a statement about complete genetic removal, not about partial pharmacological occupancy.

    Evidence that argues against this (1)
    • Heavily pretreated KMT2A::AFF1 ALL samples were markedly less menin-inhibitor-sensitive than earlier samples from the same patients despite no prior exposure, with transcriptomics showing sustained on-target effect, so reversibility on complete removal does not predict reversibility under a drug. Mahdavi L et al. 2026
  14. E14established confidence 5 of 5: Multiple independent lines of evidence; treated as settled in the field.paper

    Degron-mediated MLL::AF9 removal changes transcriptional elongation at a core subset of target genes within 15 minutes, with loss of the active chromatin landscape occurring subsequently; combined DOT1L and menin inhibition resembles outright degradation and releases the oncoprotein from chromatin globally.

    What this evidence cannot show

    Abstract read 2026-09-20. This is the ONLY measurement of temporal ordering anywhere in this chain, and it orders exactly one pair of events (elongation before chromatin) for exactly one fusion (MLL::AF9) in one cell system. No degron model of KMT2A::AFF1 exists, so the ordering has never been tested on the index fusion.

    Evidence that argues against this (1)
    • Complete protein removal is not partial pharmacological occupancy; clinical material shows resistance arising downstream of sustained target engagement, so the kinetics of degradation do not transfer to the kinetics of inhibition. Mahdavi L et al. 2026
  15. E15strong confidence 4 of 5: Replicated in peer-reviewed work by more than one group.paper

    In the registration-enabling phase 2 KMT2A-rearranged portion of AUGMENT-101, 94 patients (median age 37, range 1.3-75 years) were treated with revumenib; CR+CRh was 22.8% among 57 efficacy-evaluable patients and the overall response rate was 63.2%.

    Menin Inhibition With Revumenib for KMT2A-Rearranged Relapsed or Refractory Acute Leukemia (AUGMENT-101). · Issa GC, Aldoss I, Thirman MJ, DiPersio J, et al. · J Clin Oncol 2025
    What this evidence cannot show

    Abstract read 2026-09-20. Single-arm, relapsed/refractory, heavily pretreated, mixed AML and ALL and mixed ages including adults. This is the clinical endpoint of the chain and it is the number any mechanistic account has to be consistent with: complete remission in roughly one in five, not in most.

    Evidence that argues against this (1)
    • Somatic MEN1 mutations at the drug-menin interface mediate clinical resistance and are recovered by an unbiased base-editor screen, so a substantial part of the residual disease is on-pathway escape rather than a failure of the mechanism. Perner F et al. 2023
  16. E16strong confidence 4 of 5: Replicated in peer-reviewed work by more than one group.paper

    Whole-genome CRISPR screens coupled to a bivalent MHC class I reporter identify Menin-KMT2A/B alongside MTF2-PRC2.1 and PCGF1-PRC1.1 as maintainers of bivalency; genetic loss or pharmacological inhibition of menin phenocopies polycomb disruption and paradoxically ACTIVATES bivalent genes.

    Targeting Menin disrupts the KMT2A/B and polycomb balance to paradoxically activate bivalent genes. · Sparbier CE, Gillespie A, Gomez J, Kumari N, et al. · Nat Cell Biol 2023
    What this evidence cannot show

    Abstract read 2026-09-20. Screens in cell lines, not in the index disease. The consequence for this chain is large: an effect of a menin inhibitor can arise through WILD-TYPE KMT2A/B and the polycomb balance rather than through the fusion, and no published menin-inhibitor experiment separates the two. The paper's own H3K27me3 CUT&Tag is in the GENETIC arm (MEN1 knockout versus control: total H3K27me3 unchanged, occupancy reduced at bivalent non-Menin-bound promoters); its VTP50469 arm carries Menin ChIP-seq and RNA-seq and no H3K27me3. Full text read via Europe PMC fullTextXML (PMC7614190) on 2026-09-20. The correct bounded statement is that no H3K27me3 measurement under a menin INHIBITOR has been reported, not that none exists at all; see ana-h3k27me3-under-menin-inhibition-the-absence-is-narrower-than-stated.

    Evidence that argues against this (1)
    • Menin-inhibitor compounds engage menin-MLL1, menin-MLL2 and other menin interactions, yet Men1 deletion in MLL-AF9 cells produces consequences distinct from Mll1;Mll2 co-deletion, so the wild-type route is real but is not the whole of the drug's action either. Chen Y et al. 2019
  17. E17strong confidence 4 of 5: Replicated in peer-reviewed work by more than one group.paper

    Menin inhibition induces PRC1.1-dependent deposition of H2AK119ub to silence a subset of MLL-fusion-protein targets, and the enhanced PRC1.1 activity arises specifically from progressive loss of DOT1L-mediated H3K79 methylation.

    DOT1L provides transcriptional memory through PRC1.1 antagonism. · Neville D, Ferguson DT, Heikamp EB, Lai Z, et al. · Nat Cell Biol 2026
    What this evidence cannot show

    Abstract read 2026-09-20. This inverts part of the chain's therapeutic arm: the silencing that follows the drug is an ACTIVE deposition by a host polycomb complex, not simply the decay of what the fusion had installed. Cell-line and mouse work; not measured in infant KMT2A::AFF1 material.

    Evidence that argues against this (1)
    • Loss of PRC1.1 subunits such as PCGF1 or BCOR causes menin-inhibitor RESISTANCE by reactivating non-canonical menin targets including MYC - the same complex read as a resistance determinant rather than as an effector, and the two readings have not been reconciled in one system. Zhou X et al. 2024
  18. E18strong confidence 4 of 5: Replicated in peer-reviewed work by more than one group.paper

    Chromatin-focused CRISPR screens with genetic, epigenetic and pharmacological follow-up in human and mouse KMT2A-rearranged AML models show that loss of PRC1.1 subunits such as PCGF1 or BCOR causes menin-inhibitor resistance through epigenetic reactivation of non-canonical menin targets including MYC.

    What this evidence cannot show

    Abstract read 2026-09-20. AML models; the infant B-lineage index disease is not represented. Together with E17 this means the drug's output is partly executed by a complex belonging to the host cell, so a patient's polycomb state is part of the mechanism.

    Evidence that argues against this (1)
    • The DOT1L/PRC1.1 account places PRC1.1 downstream of H3K79 loss as the effector of silencing, whereas this paper places it as the gatekeeper whose loss confers resistance; both cannot be the complete description and no experiment tests them against each other. Neville D et al. 2026
  19. E19strong confidence 4 of 5: Replicated in peer-reviewed work by more than one group.paper

    Guanine nucleotide biosynthesis is elevated in MLL-rearranged AML leukaemia stem cells; IMPDH2 targeting reduces guanine nucleotides and rRNA transcription, reduces LEDGF and menin protein, impairs MLL complex formation, drives myeloid differentiation and sensitises to menin inhibition.

    What this evidence cannot show

    Abstract read 2026-09-20. Murine and human AML models. The importance for the chain is structural: link 2 is drawn as a fixed protein-protein interface and is in fact a function of nucleotide supply and ribosome biogenesis, which no version of this chain represents. This graph's metabolism beat records an alternative, SAMHD1-centred account in which IMPDH sensitivity is not KMT2A-specific; see concept-metabolic-dependency-consequence-or-independent-kmt2a.

    Evidence that argues against this (1)
    • Menin-inhibitor compounds also engage menin-MLL1 and menin-MLL2 and other menin interactions, so a treatment that lowers menin protein is not equivalent to one that blocks the fusion's motif, and the two are conflated when both are described as acting on link 2. Chen Y et al. 2019
  20. E20moderate confidence 3 of 5: One strong study, or several smaller consistent ones.paper

    Within paediatric t(4;11) ALL a core signature of 186 deregulated genes and four biological discriminators divide patients into infants with LOW HOXA expression and KMT2A breakpoints in introns 11/12, and non-infants with HIGH HOXA expression and breakpoints in introns 9/10.

    Two independent gene signatures in pediatric t(4;11) acute lymphoblastic leukemia patients. · Trentin L, Giordan M, Dingermann T, Basso G, et al. · Eur J Haematol 2009
    What this evidence cannot show

    Abstract read 2026-09-20. Expression-array era, modest single-centre cohort, not replicated in a modern cohort within this graph's citations. If it holds, link 5 of this chain is absent or strongly attenuated in the youngest infants - the group the index disease is defined by.

    Evidence that argues against this (1)
    • HOXA9 depletion kills KMT2A-rearranged human lines selectively and HOXA transcripts are the field's default pharmacodynamic readout, so a subgroup with low HOXA is either running a different mechanism or reflecting a measurement artefact, and nothing published distinguishes those. Faber J et al. 2009
  21. E21moderate confidence 3 of 5: One strong study, or several smaller consistent ones.paper

    In a head-to-head cell-line panel, menin-MLL and DOT1L inhibitors acted specifically on KMT2A-fused lines while BET, DHODH and P-TEFb/CDK9 inhibitors had strong effects well beyond KMT2A fusions; menin, DOT1L and DHODH inhibitors induced significant differentiation whereas BET and CDK9 inhibitors did not.

    Functional diversity of inhibitors tackling the differentiation blockage of MLL-rearranged leukemia. · Brzezinka K, Nevedomskaya E, Lesche R, Steckel M, et al. · J Hematol Oncol 2019
    What this evidence cannot show

    Abstract read 2026-09-20. Cell lines only, short assays, no in-vivo or primary-sample arm. It is the cleanest available demonstration that only links 2 and 4 are both required and fusion-selective, while link 3 is mechanistically central and built from common-essential machinery.

    Evidence that argues against this (1)
    • A menin inhibitor combined with a DOT1L inhibitor suppresses fusion targets and MYC targets more profoundly than either alone while sparing normal haematopoiesis, so the two selective links are not independent and their individual selectivity does not predict the combination's. Dafflon C et al. 2017
  22. E22strong confidence 4 of 5: Replicated in peer-reviewed work by more than one group.paper

    A higher-order complex containing AF4-family and ENL-family proteins with P-TEFb (AEP) is normally recruited to KMT2A-target chromatin; KMT2A fused to an AEP component forms a constitutive KMT2A/AEP hybrid causing sustained target expression and progenitor transformation, whereas KMT2A::AFDN, whose partner is cytoplasmic, does not.

    What this evidence cannot show

    Abstract read 2026-09-20. Murine transformation assays plus biochemistry. The AFDN contrast is the useful control: constitutive elongation-complex capture is what the common partners supply, and at least one recurrent partner reaches a similar endpoint by another route.

    Evidence that argues against this (1)
    • Not every KMT2A partner is an elongation factor and the chain as written has no place for the non-elongation partners; the SEC family itself splits into AFF1 and AFF4 complexes with non-overlapping targets, so 'the fusion hijacks the SEC' names a family rather than a mechanism. Lu H et al. 2015
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