Oncofusion

start / graph / hyp-q114-the-h3k9me3-at-the-kmt2a-anchor-is-not-put-there-by-suv39h1

Hypothesisspeculative confidence 1 of 5: Our own inference or analogy. Not shown to be true.Q114-suv39h1-at-the-locus

The H3K9me3 this graph argues about at the KMT2A exon-11 anchor is not deposited by SUV39H1: in SU-DIPG13 the mark sits at the 57.8th percentile of class-matched CTCF anchors while the writer reads an EXPLICIT ZERO in the same nuclei, and genome-wide the two barely track each other (Spearman 0.148, 0.078)

also called the mark without its writer · SETDB1 or G9a, not SUV39H1

At the exact spot this project cares about, the silencing tag is present at an ordinary level and the enzyme usually credited with making it is completely absent - in the same cells, measured the same day. If that holds up, the tag there is somebody else's work, and any drug aimed at this enzyme would miss.

The same thing, for a scientist

**The observation that generates it.** In SU-DIPG13, at the 147 bp *KMT2A* exon-11 CTCF anchor: **H3K9me3 = 1.6301** (57.8th percentile of 59,821 class-matched CTCF anchors, 2.29x the width-matched random-tile median) and **SUV39H1 = 0.0000**, an explicit zero-valued record in a track whose top 0.1% of anchors averages 22.2x the random-tile mean. Same nuclei, same CUT&RUN pipeline, same deposit, same day [E1][E2]. In SU-DIPG36 the pair is mark 0.8356 (63.1st) and writer 1.6660 (74.2nd), so the dissociation is in one of two lines, not both. **And it is not a one-locus curiosity.** Across all 59,821 anchors the two tracks correlate at Spearman **0.148** and **0.078** - indistinguishable from their correlation over 200,000 random tiles (0.159, 0.085) - and **25.4%** and **39.1%** of the writer's own top 1% of sites carry H3K9me3 below the median anchor [E2]. **The hypothesis.** H3K9me3 at this element is deposited by **SETDB1** or by **EHMT2/G9a** (whose me1/me2 product can be converted onward), or is maintained by read-write propagation from a neighbouring domain, rather than by SUV39H1 acting there. **SUV39H1's contribution to the mark at this element is zero or near-zero in every cell type.** **Why this is worth writing rather than shrugging at.** This graph's H3K9 dispute has two arms pointing in opposite therapeutic directions - `mark-h3k9me3` says the mark restrains the fusion programme so lowering it is dangerous, `mechanism-h3k9me1-2-ctcf-balance-gates-kmt2a-rearrangement` says H3K9me1/2 promotes rearrangement so lowering it is protective. **Both are arguments about enzymes, and neither has ever had an enzyme placed at the locus.** If the writer is the wrong writer, the drug class implied by each arm changes: a SUV39H1 agent (chaetocin and successors) becomes irrelevant here, and a G9a/GLP inhibitor or a SETDB1 degron becomes the agent whose effect at this element has to be predicted. **Prior: low, and stated as low.** `prior_probability` 0.2. Three reasons for caution, all of which could make the observation an artefact rather than a finding: the deposit has **no IgG and no knockout**, so a zero could be an antibody failure; this beat's **KRAB-ZNF positive control failed at all four scales**, so the deposit's sensitivity is not established; and it is **one sample per antibody per line** in a paediatric glioma, which is neither the lineage nor the disease.

Go deeper
What would have to be true, and what already is

Prediction 1 - the writer stays absent where the mark is present, in a second system. The MCF-7 arm of the same beat measures the identical statistic in a completely different cell type and assay. (Run in the same cycle; reported separately because that arm's instrument control failed.)

Prediction 2 - removing SUV39H1 does not lower H3K9me3 at this element. A degron or knockout with an H3K9me3 CUT&RUN readout at the 147 bp anchor. This is the decisive experiment and it has never been done in any cell type at this locus.

Prediction 3 - SETDB1 or EHMT2 IS at the element in some cell type. Partially tested and partially negative already: ana-q110-h3k9-writer-and-reader-occupancy-at-the-kmt2a-locus found SETDB1 with no called peak in K562 in three peak sets from two labs, and EHMT2/G9a has never been read at this element at all. GSE139196 contains four EHMT2 ChIP-seq samples in MCF-7 that nobody has looked at - that is the cheapest test of prediction 3 in existence and it needs no new data.

Prediction 4 - the mark at the element is maintained rather than deposited locally. Read-write propagation predicts that the element's H3K9me3 tracks its flanking domain more closely than it tracks any writer's occupancy. Testable in the same tracks with a flank-versus-element statistic that was not computed here.

How it could be wrong in a way that matters

The most likely failure is boring and technical: CST #8729S is not reliably immunoprecipitating SUV39H1 in CUT&RUN. A writer that appears absent from 55.9-63.3% of all CTCF anchors, whose extreme values concentrate on unlocalised scaffolds, and which shows no enrichment at the canonical KRAB-ZNF address is exactly what a weak antibody looks like. The hypothesis and the artefact make the same prediction for every observation reported here except prediction 2, which is why prediction 2 is the one that decides it.

The second failure is scale. H3K9me3 works in domains of tens to hundreds of kilobases; a 147 bp window is far below that, and an enzyme can maintain a domain from a small number of transient contacts that a snapshot never catches. A low writer-mark correlation at 147 bp is compatible with a high one at 100 kb, and that recomputation was not run.

Facts and figures
statementThe H3K9me3 present at the KMT2A exon-11 CTCF anchor is not deposited by SUV39H1 acting at that element; it is deposited by SETDB1 or EHMT2/G9a, or maintained by propagation from the flanking domain.
origindata-pattern
prior probability0.2
cell typegenerated in SU-DIPG13 and SU-DIPG36; the claim is about any human cell
lineagegenerated in paediatric glioma - NOT haematopoietic, NOT KMT2A-rearranged
shown for fusionNO - nobody has measured any H3K9 writer's occupancy at this element in a KMT2A-rearranged cell of any lineage
predictions
[
  "In any human cell type, SUV39H1 occupancy at the 147 bp exon-11 anchor is below the 75th percentile of same-cell-type CTCF anchors while H3K9me3 at the same window is at or above the 50th.",
  "A SUV39H1 degron or knockout in a human cell lowers H3K9me3 at the 147 bp exon-11 anchor by less than 1.3-fold, while lowering it at pericentromeric or KRAB-ZNF control regions by more than 2-fold in the same experiment.",
  "REFUTED 2026-09-23. The prediction was: \"EHMT2/G9a occupancy at the exon-11 anchor in MCF-7 (GSE139196, four deposited samples, never analysed) is at or above the 75th percentile of MCF-7 CTCF anchors - i.e. higher than SUV39H1's.\" MEASURED by the cycle-68 beat across the four deposited EHMT2 tracks and re-checked by the king in its committed results.json: exon-11 percentiles against 56,171 MCF-7 CTCF summit windows are **43.01, 23.83, 8.36 and 69.15, median 33.42, and 0 of 4 are above the 75th**. SUV39H1 reads 79.93 at the same window, so G9a is not merely below the threshold - it is BELOW SUV39H1, which is the opposite of what this prediction staked. The hypothesis that something other than SUV39H1 puts H3K9me3 here survives, but G9a is no longer its candidate: the same beat found NOTHING fires at the anchor across 8 antigens and 28 tracks."
]
experiments
[
  "exp-q114-a-suv39h1-cutandrun-in-a-cd34-progenitor-and-a-kmt2a-rearranged-line",
  "exp-q114-gse139196-holds-the-whole-h3k9-axis-in-one-cell-type"
]
analyses
[
  "ana-q114-suv39h1-is-not-at-the-kmt2a-locus-in-either-patient-derived-glioma-line",
  "ana-q114-the-h3k9me3-writer-and-its-own-mark-barely-coincide-in-the-same-nuclei"
]
falsifiers
[
  "A SUV39H1 degron or knockout, in ANY human cell line, that lowers H3K9me3 at the 147 bp exon-11 anchor (GRCh38 chr11:118,488,614-118,488,760) by MORE THAN 1.5-fold relative to a matched control, in a CUT&RUN or ChIP with a spike-in and with a pericentromeric or KRAB-ZNF positive control showing at least 2-fold loss in the same samples, kills this hypothesis.",
  "SUV39H1 occupancy at the same 147 bp window ABOVE the 75th percentile of same-cell-type CTCF anchors in a haematopoietic cell (CD34+, SEM or RS4;11), with a C4 instrument control that PASSES (a same-cell CTCF track placing the window above its own 90th percentile), kills the locus-specific form of this hypothesis.",
  "A writer-mark Spearman correlation ABOVE 0.5 over the same class of anchor windows in any cell type where SUV39H1 and H3K9me3 are measured together with an IgG control would show that 0.148 and 0.078 are a property of this deposit rather than of the enzyme, and would remove the genome-wide support for this hypothesis.",
  "ALREADY PARTLY TESTED, AND THE RESULT CUTS BOTH WAYS (cycle 66): in SU-DIPG36, the second line of the same deposit, SUV39H1 at this window is at the 74.17th percentile - just below the 75th threshold named in falsifier 2 and far from the zero seen in SU-DIPG13. The hypothesis survives on a technicality in one of the two lines it was generated from, and that is recorded here rather than left out."
]
prediction 3 outcome cycle 74
{
  "verdict": "REFUTED",
  "measured": "exon-11 vs 56,171 MCF-7 CTCF summit windows: 43.01 / 23.83 / 8.36 / 69.15, median 33.42, 0 of 4 above the 75th percentile",
  "suv39h1_same_window": 79.93,
  "source": "analyses/q116-h3k9-axis-at-the-locus/results.json, re-read by the king",
  "what_survives": "the hypothesis itself. Nothing in the H3K9 panel fires at the anchor, so the question of what deposits the mark there is open and now has no named candidate at all",
  "and_a_label_error_in_this_entry": "predictions 1 and 3 both say '147 bp exon-11 anchor'. The stored bounds chr11:118,488,614-118,488,760 are 146 bp half-open and 147 inclusive, and the beat that tested this derived 146 from the interval while q114's design.py hard-coded ANCHOR_W = 147 for its null windows. Which convention is intended is not recorded anywhere; the label is inconsistent with the arithmetic either way."
}
How this could bite us back
  • If the mark at this element is not SUV39H1's, a SUV39H1 inhibitor cannot move it - so the safety concern in mark-h3k9me3 (that lowering H3K9me3 releases the fusion programme) would not be raised by a SUV39H1 agent, but WOULD be raised by a G9a/GLP inhibitor or a SETDB1 degron. The hypothesis moves the risk between drug classes rather than removing it.
  • The hypothesis is generated from a deposit with no IgG and no knockout, and its most likely failure mode is a weak antibody. Anyone acting on it before prediction 2 is tested is acting on a reagent's limitations.
Still open
  1. Is EHMT2/G9a at the exon-11 anchor in MCF-7? Four deposited ChIP-seq samples in GSE139196 answer this with compute alone and would test prediction 3 directly. It is the cheapest discriminating experiment available and this beat did not run it.
  2. Does the element's H3K9me3 track its flanking domain more closely than it tracks any writer? A flank-versus-element statistic in the same GSE225028 tracks would test the propagation alternative, and it was not computed.
  3. If no writer is at the element in any cell type, what deposits the mark there at all - and is the answer simply that 57.8th-percentile H3K9me3 at a CTCF anchor is background rather than a deposited domain? That possibility would dissolve this hypothesis and much of the H3K9 dispute with it, and nothing in this corpus has tested it.
Every source behind this entry (3)
  1. E1moderate confidence 3 of 5: One strong study, or several smaller consistent ones.dataset

    In SU-DIPG13 the KMT2A exon-11 anchor carries H3K9me3 at 1.6301 (57.8th percentile of 59,821 class-matched CTCF anchors) and SUV39H1 at exactly 0.0000, from two CUT&RUN tracks of the same nuclei in one deposit.

    What this evidence cannot show

    One sample per antibody per line; no IgG; no knockout. The zero is explicit rather than uncovered - records() returns one zero-valued interval over the window and all three pybigtools fill modes agree - but an explicit zero from an antibody that is not working is still a zero.

    Evidence that argues against this (1)
    • SU-DIPG36, the other line in the same deposit, shows the writer at the 74.2nd percentile at the same element. One of the two lines does NOT show the dissociation at this locus, and with n=1 per line the deposit cannot say which is representative. source
  2. E2moderate confidence 3 of 5: One strong study, or several smaller consistent ones.dataset

    Genome-wide over the same 59,821 anchors, SUV39H1 and H3K9me3 correlate at Spearman 0.148 and 0.078, and 25.4% and 39.1% of the writer's top 1% of sites carry H3K9me3 below the median anchor.

    Q114 post-hoc pass, results_bigwig_posthoc.json, question_C · Q114-suv39h1-at-the-locus · oncofusion-knowledge-graph 2026
    What this evidence cannot show

    Declared descriptive in the pre-registration before running, and it is not a hypothesis test: at n = 59,821 a rho of 0.078 would be 'significant' and says almost nothing about any single locus. 147 bp windows are far below the scale at which H3K9me3 domains operate.

    Evidence that argues against this (1)
    • Weak occupancy-mark correlation is a general property of chromatin snapshots and is not specific to SUV39H1. Without a second writer measured the same way in the same cells - which GSE139196's EHMT2 arm could supply in MCF-7 - there is no way to tell whether 0.08-0.15 is low for a writer or normal for one. source
  3. E3strong confidence 4 of 5: Replicated in peer-reviewed work by more than one group.dataset

    SETDB1 has no called peak at the KMT2A locus or within 50 kb in K562, in three peak sets from two labs, and EHMT2/G9a has never been read at this element in any cell type.

    ana-q110-h3k9-writer-and-reader-occupancy-at-the-kmt2a-locus (cycle 65 ENCODE re-analysis) · Q110-h3k9me3-writer-layer · oncofusion-knowledge-graph 2026
    What this evidence cannot show

    K562 only, resting state, peak-level rather than signal-level for the SETDB1 arm. That entry's own open question asks whether the absence is a resting-state property or an absence full stop.

    Evidence that argues against this (1)
    • If SETDB1 is also absent and EHMT2 turns out to be absent, the hypothesis has no writer left and must fall back on read-write propagation from a flanking domain - which is a much weaker and harder-to-test claim, and which nothing here supports. source
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