Oncofusion

start / graph / hyp-q120-whether-h3k79me2-survives-a-menin-inhibitor-is-set-by-the-fusion-partner-not-by-menin

Hypothesismoderate confidence 3 of 5: One strong study, or several smaller consistent ones.Q120-h3k79me2-second-line-and-the-mll1-epitope

Hypothesis: H3K79me2 at a KMT2A fusion's own sites survives menin inhibition when the C-terminal partner contacts DOT1L directly (MLLT3/AF9) and decays when it does not (AFF1) - so the mark's response is a property of the partner and not of menin, which predicts the opposite of the direct-contact intuition and is testable in one line

also called the partner sets the mark's fate · why H3K79me2 did not replicate

The histone tag disappeared in one leukaemia cell line and stayed put in another. The two lines differ in which partner gene is fused to KMT2A, and the one where the tag survives is the one whose partner grips the tag-writing enzyme directly - which is backwards from what you would guess.

The same thing, for a scientist

**The observation that needs explaining** [E1]. Under 330 nM VTP-50469 for 3 days, at the bins where an MLL1 N-terminus and menin co-occupy: menin, DOT1L and MLL1-N reproduce between RS4;11 and MOLM13 to within 0.04 of a share ratio, and **H3K79me2 goes from 0.6578 to 0.8667** - the only channel of four that does not replicate, and the largest single cross-line difference in the beat. **The hypothesis.** The fate of H3K79me2 after menin eviction is determined by the fusion's C-terminal partner, through how that partner engages the DOT1L complex: - **KMT2A::MLLT3 (AF9)** - AF9's ANC1-homology domain binds DOT1L directly. A menin-independent AF9-DOT1L contact can retain catalytically sufficient DOT1L, or can hold the complex at the locus long enough, that the mark is maintained. Observed: mark unchanged at 0.9980 while DOT1L occupancy falls to 0.2773. - **KMT2A::AFF1** - AFF1 reaches DOT1L indirectly through the AF4-family/SEC axis. Remove menin and the whole assembly disperses, so the mark decays. Observed: mark 0.7008 at the same construction. **Why this is worth writing down even though it predicts the counter-intuitive direction.** The naive expectation - and this beat's own pre-registered prior P5 - was that the direct-contact fusion would lose the mark *faster*, because AF9 is the archetypal DOT1L-recruiting partner and MOLM13 is the line where the DOT1L axis matters most. **P5 was wrong in the direction it named.** A hypothesis that explains the observed sign has to invert the intuition: a direct contact is a menin-INDEPENDENT contact, and menin inhibition cannot break it. **The rival explanation this beat cannot exclude is lineage.** RS4;11 is B-ALL and MOLM13 is AML, and the two are perfectly confounded with the partner in this series. The whole hypothesis rests on a 2 x 1 comparison and the experiment that breaks the confound is named below.

Go deeper
What follows if it is right, and what follows if lineage wins

If the partner sets it: H3K79me2 is useless as a pharmacodynamic readout for menin inhibition in AF9-family fusions specifically, and usable in AF4-family ones - a partner-stratified biomarker rule, which nobody has proposed. And a DOT1L inhibitor added to a menin inhibitor has a larger substrate in AF9 disease, because the mark that survives is the mark the DOT1L inhibitor removes.

If lineage sets it: the rule is myeloid-versus-lymphoid, the partner is incidental, and the mark's persistence should also appear in a non-KMT2A myeloid line, which is testable in the K562 and OCIAML3 samples GSE260742 deposits and this beat did not touch.

Either way the four-way ordering Q118 reported is not a mechanism of menin inhibition. Three quarters of it is - menin and DOT1L leave, the shared-epitope channel does not move - and the fourth channel is a property of the system.

Facts and figures
hypothesisThe response of H3K79me2 at a KMT2A fusion's own sites to menin inhibition is determined by the fusion's C-terminal partner and its mode of DOT1L engagement, with direct-contact partners (MLLT3/AF9) retaining the mark and indirect ones (AFF1) losing it.
prior0.45
prior basisBelow even odds deliberately. The observation is solid and the 2 x 1 design cannot separate partner from lineage, and the rival lineage explanation is at least as plausible a priori. Set at 0.45 rather than 0.5 because the hypothesis requires inverting the direct-contact intuition, which this beat's own pre-registered prior P5 got wrong in the same direction.
epigenetic readoutH3K79me2 share ratio at the fusion's own sites: 0.6578 in KMT2A::AFF1 and 0.8667 in KMT2A::MLLT3, at the same construction in the same series
mark writtenH3K79me2
writer of that markgene-dot1l
shown for fusionKMT2A::AFF1 and KMT2A::MLLT3 in human; NOT shown for KMT2A::AFDN, which is the discriminating case and has no H3K79me2 sample in this series
absence classunclassified-not-checked
absence class noteThe discriminating measurement - H3K79me2 under a menin inhibitor in a KMT2A::AFDN line - does not exist in GSE127507 and NO GEO-wide query for it has been run, so whether it is never-measured or measured-not-searched in another series is unknown. Honest default.
absence class assigned2026-09-23 (Q120)
experiments
[
  "exp-q120-h3k79me2-chip-in-a-kmt2a-afdn-line-under-a-menin-inhibitor",
  "exp-q120-an-mll1-c-terminal-chip-beside-the-n-terminal-one-in-one-human-line"
]
analyses
[
  "ana-q120-three-of-the-four-channels-replicate-across-two-fusion-partners-and-h3k79me2-does-not",
  "ana-q120-the-sgc0946-arm-of-gse260742-would-bound-the-marks-decay-for-one-download"
]
falsifiers
[
  "PARTNER ARM, NOT YET RUN. In a KMT2A::AFDN (MLL-AF6) line - AFDN does NOT contact DOT1L directly, so the hypothesis predicts the RS4;11 behaviour - H3K79me2 at the MLL1-N-and-MENIN co-occupied 2 kb bins under a menin inhibitor at 3 days has an aggregate within-sample share ratio BELOW 0.80, floor-normalised. If it is at or above 0.90, i.e. MOLM13-like in a line that is AML but not AF9-family, the partner explanation is refuted and lineage wins. Indifference band 0.80-0.90; report the magnitude inside it rather than a verdict. REAGENT AND WHAT IT CANNOT DISTINGUISH: the mark must be read with an anti-H3K79me2 antibody (CST #5427 in GSE127507, Abcam ab3594 in GSE260742 - two DIFFERENT polyclonals, so the comparison must stay inside one series or carry the reagent switch as a caveat). Either reagent reads the MARK and cannot distinguish halted deposition from active demethylation from replicative dilution, and cannot attribute any of them to the fusion; and the co-occupancy set must be defined with Bethyl A300-086A, an MLL1 N-TERMINAL epitope RETAINED in the fusion, which cannot distinguish the fusion from wild-type MLL1. So this falsifier can tell partner from lineage and CANNOT tell whether the surviving mark is at fusion-bound or wild-type-bound chromatin.",
  "LINEAGE ARM, NOT YET RUN. In a myeloid line with NO KMT2A rearrangement - GSE260742 deposits K562 and OCIAML3 - H3K79me2 under a menin inhibitor at the top 0.1% of its own H3K79me2 domains has an aggregate share ratio ABOVE 0.90. If the mark is unmoved in fusion-free myeloid cells too, then MOLM13's persistence is a lineage property and this hypothesis's central contrast is explained without any partner. Band 0.85-0.95. REAGENT: as above, and additionally in a fusion-free cell there is no fusion to attribute anything to, which is the point of the control and also its limit - a null here does not say the fusion's sites behave the same way.",
  "MECHANISM ARM, NOT YET RUN AND THE CHEAPEST OF THE THREE. If the mark survives in MOLM13 because residual DOT1L is catalytically sufficient rather than because of a partner contact, then removing DOTIL CATALYSIS directly should collapse it. GSE260742 deposits an SGC0946 H3K79me2 arm in murine MLLAF9 (an AF9 fusion). Prediction: H3K79me2 at the FLAG-tagged fusion's own top 0.1% of bins under SGC0946 has a share ratio BELOW 0.50 while the same bins under VTP50469 stay above 0.85. If BOTH drugs leave the mark high, the mark is not DOT1L-limited on this timescale at all and both this hypothesis and the residual-enzyme reading are wrong. Band 0.45-0.55 and 0.80-0.90. REAGENT: Abcam ab3594 anti-H3K79me2 in that series - a mark, not the fusion - and the FLAG tag (NEB 14793S) which reads the tagged fusion only and is blind to wild-type MLL1 and to any fusion whose tag has been proteolysed."
]
CONFOUND NAMED CYCLE 84 lineage tracks the partner perfectly
{
  "the_problem": "LINEAGE TRACKS THE FUSION PARTNER IN EVERY SYSTEM THIS HYPOTHESIS HAS BEEN TESTED IN. RS4;11 (KMT2A::AFF1, retains the mark least at 0.6578) is B-LYMPHOBLASTIC. MOLM13 (KMT2A::MLLT3, 0.8667) and murine MLL-AF9 (KMT2A::MLLT3, 0.7734/0.8318) are MYELOID. So 'set by the fusion partner' and 'set by lineage' make identical predictions on every measurement that supports this hypothesis.",
  "what_the_evidence_does_establish": "that the difference is not noise. Cycle 83's curation of Q122's C3 shows the cross-partner delta (0.2089) is 3.2-3.6x the between-culture spread (0.0584/0.0655), C6 replicates MOLM13 in an independent series (0.9063 vs 0.8667), and C8 survives a top-decile stratification in 8 of 8 measurements. The EFFECT is real; its ATTRIBUTION is not settled.",
  "the_decisive_design_and_it_does_not_exist": "a partner-matched pair within one lineage - KMT2A::AFF1 and KMT2A::MLLT3 both in B-lineage, or both myeloid - or a lineage-matched pair with different partners. No deposit this project has found contains either.",
  "why_the_ID_WAS_NOT_RENAMED": "renaming touches every edge pointing at this hypothesis, and the hypothesis is not wrong - it is under-determined. Naming the confound inside the entry is the honest fix; a rename would imply the partner reading had been retired, which it has not.",
  "how_to_quote_this_hypothesis_from_now_on": "'whether H3K79me2 survives a menin inhibitor is set by the fusion partner OR BY THE LINEAGE THAT TRACKS IT, not by menin'. The 'not by menin' half is well supported; the partner-versus-lineage half is not decided by anything measured so far.",
  "recorded_by": "king, cycle 84, from cycle 83's curation of Q122 criteria C1/C2/C3/C6/C8"
}
How this could bite us back
  • If the mark's fate is partner-set, then a single H3K79me2-based pharmacodynamic assay cannot serve a menin-inhibitor trial that enrols all KMT2A-rearranged patients, and the trials currently running do enrol across partners.
  • The hypothesis also predicts that menin-inhibitor monotherapy leaves an intact H3K79me2 landscape in AF9-family disease - a memory of the leukaemic programme that could support rapid transcriptional recovery on drug interruption. That is the same trough-dependence failure mode the previous cycle's hypothesis named, arriving by a different route.
  • And if lineage wins instead, the useful conclusion is worse: the four-way ordering is a property of cell type, and every single-line chromatin mechanism in this corpus inherits that warning.
Still open
  1. What system did Gilan et al.'s CRISPR-ChIP H3K79me2 result come from? This graph records it as resolved to murine MLL-AF9 - an AF9 fusion - which would make it a direct challenge to this hypothesis, and this beat did not read the paper to check the effect size.
  2. Does AF9's ANC1-homology domain contact with DOT1L survive menin inhibition at the chromatin level? A co-IP from treated and untreated MOLM13 nuclei would test the mechanism rather than its consequence, and no such experiment is deposited.
  3. Is the persistence at the fusion's sites or everywhere? MOLM13's H3K79me2 genome-wide mid-occupancy floor is 0.9899, so the mark is flat across the genome in that line - which means the informative comparison may be that RS4;11 has a SITE-SPECIFIC loss against its own flat floor of 0.9851, rather than that MOLM13 has a site-specific retention.
Every source behind this entry (1)
  1. E1strong confidence 4 of 5: Replicated in peer-reviewed work by more than one group.dataset

    At the MLL1-N-and-MENIN co-occupied 2 kb bins under 330 nM VTP-50469, the within-sample share ratios are RS4;11 (KMT2A::AFF1, B-ALL) MENIN 0.2005, DOT1L 0.2003, H3K79me2 0.6578, MLL1-N 0.8305 over 692 bins, and MOLM13 (KMT2A::MLLT3, AML) MENIN 0.1657, DOT1L 0.2219, H3K79me2 0.8667, MLL1-N 0.8020 over 467 bins; the H3K79me2 difference is 0.209 and the other three are 0.035, 0.022 and 0.029. At each line's MLL1-N held set the mark is 0.7008 and 0.9980.

    What this evidence cannot show

    Fusion partner and lineage are perfectly confounded between these two lines, so the hypothesis is one of two readings of a 2 x 1 comparison and this entry does not choose between them on the data. CST #5427 anti-H3K79me2 reads a histone MARK, i.e. a consequence. It cannot distinguish halted deposition from active demethylation from replicative dilution, and it cannot attribute any of them to the fusion. CST #77087S clone 1W4Z anti-DOT1L cannot distinguish DOT1L held by the fusion's partner moiety from DOT1L in wild-type complexes - and the two lines compared here differ in exactly that moiety, MLLT3/AF9 (direct DOT1L contact) versus AFF1 (indirect, through the AF4-family/SEC axis). NO SPIKE-IN NORMALISATION. All 26 GSE127507 records state a Drosophila spike-in was run, measured, and deliberately not used, and no scale factor is deposited; no GSE260742 record contains spike-in vocabulary at all. Every cross-condition number here is therefore a WITHIN-SAMPLE share or rank, which cancels the unknown per-sample scale factor exactly. No raw fold change is reported as a biological quantity anywhere in this beat. n = 1 per antibody per condition per line in both series. No number in this beat carries a spread and none is precise. GSE127507's MOLM13 MENIN pair is a 4-day exposure and the rest 3-day; the pure-3-day set gives H3K79me2 0.9546, which strengthens rather than weakens the contrast.

    Evidence that argues against this (1)
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