Oncofusion

start / graph / comut-ras-pathway-kmt2a-r

Pathwaystrong confidence 4 of 5: Replicated in peer-reviewed work by more than one group.Q10-genome

Kinase/PI3K/RAS pathway activation — the only common co-lesion class in KMT2A-r leukemia, and it is mostly subclonal

also called RAS pathway mutations in MLL-rearranged ALL · kinase-PI3K-RAS signalling co-mutation · secondary RAS hit infant ALL

About half of KMT2A-rearranged infant leukemias carry an extra mutation that switches on a growth-signalling pathway called RAS. But in most cases only a minority of the leukemia cells carry it, and it often disappears when the disease comes back — so it looks like a passenger that helps the cells grow rather than the thing keeping the cancer alive.

The same thing, for a scientist

Activating mutations in kinase/PI3K/RAS signalling are found in 22/47 (47%) infant KMT2A-r ALL cases in the St. Jude PCGP cohort and in 34-38% of the 124-patient Interfant-99/06 cohort, making this the only co-lesion class in the disease that is frequent. Its interpretation is contested in a way that matters therapeutically. Two thirds of these mutations sit at mutant allele frequencies below 30%, indicating minor diagnostic subclones; they are frequently lost at relapse; and functional work shows activated KRAS does not cooperate with KMT2A::AFF1 to initiate leukemia in human cord-blood CD34+ cells, only to enhance extramedullary homing and CNS infiltration. Against that, a 109-patient Interfant cohort found RAS mutation to be an independent predictor of poor outcome (HR 3.194, P = 0.019), and RAS-mutant primary cells are sensitive to trametinib, selumetinib and binimetinib ex vivo, with MEK inhibition synergising with prednisolone in both RAS-mutant and RAS-wild-type samples.

Go deeper
Frequency: three cohorts, one answer
cohortnRAS/kinase/PI3K pathway mutatedsource
St. Jude PCGP, infant KMT2A-r ALL4722/47 (47%)1
St. Jude PCGP, infant non-KMT2A-r ALL187/18 (39%), P = 0.59 vs KMT2A-r1
St. Jude PCGP, non-infant KMT2A-r leukemia (7-19 y)2010/20 (50%)1
Interfant-99/06 discovery4238% (KRAS or NRAS)3
Interfant-99/06 validation8234% (KRAS or NRAS)3
Interfant (Driessen), all infant ALL10914% (NRAS/KRAS/BRAF by Sanger)2
Interfant (Driessen), t(4;11)-positive subset—24% (P = 0.04 vs rest)2

Two things stand out. First, the frequency is not KMT2A-specific: 47% in KMT2A-r infants versus 39% in non-KMT2A-r infants is not a significant difference (P = 0.59) 1. RAS activation is a feature of infant ALL, not a feature the fusion selects for uniquely — although within infant ALL it does concentrate in t(4;11) 2, and NRAS specifically is enriched in t(4;11) (32% vs 6%, P = 0.01) 3.

Second, the lower Driessen figure is a method effect, not a contradiction. That study used conventional Sanger sequencing of NRAS, KRAS and BRAF only 2; the PCGP figure covers the whole tyrosine-kinase/PI3K/RAS class (adding FLT3, PTPN11, NF1, PIK3CA, PIK3R1, CBL) by whole-genome plus 232-gene targeted sequencing, and Sanger cannot see subclones below roughly 20% allele frequency — which is where two thirds of these mutations live.

The individual genes have their own nodes: comut-kras-kmt2a-r, comut-nras-kmt2a-r, comut-ptpn11-kmt2a-r, comut-nf1-kmt2a-r, comut-flt3-kmt2a-r, comut-pik3r1-kmt2a-r.

Subclonality — the finding that reframes the whole class2 deeper

This is the most therapeutically consequential number in the beat.

  • 65% (20 of 31) of the activating kinase/PI3K/RAS mutations in the PCGP infant cohort sat at a mutant allele frequency below 30%, against an average tumour purity of 92% 1. These are minor diagnostic subclones, not clonal drivers.
  • Eight cases carried two or more mutations in the pathway; in six of those eight, every one of the mutations was below 30% MAF 1. That is the signature of parallel, independent, convergent acquisition in separate subclones — several cells independently finding the same pathway — rather than sequential accumulation in one lineage.
  • Yet 100% of the activating pathway mutant alleles were expressed at the RNA level, irrespective of allele frequency, against only 48% of non-silent SNVs generally 1. So the subclones are not silent passengers; they are doing something. They are just not doing it in most of the tumour.
  • In non-infant KMT2A-r leukemia this inverts: the majority of pathway mutations are in the major clone, and this extends to all somatic exonic mutations (P < 0.0001 versus infants) 1.

The clonal architecture therefore differs by age within the same driver: in an infant, RAS activation is a late subclonal event; in an older child it is closer to a founding event.

Lost at relapse

Seven matched diagnosis-relapse infant KMT2A-r pairs were analysed, five of which carried a pathway mutation at diagnosis 1:

  • maintained or increased at relapse: 2 (INF001, INF065)
  • lost at relapse: 2 (INF033, INF042)
  • decreased, MAF 39% to 15%: 1 (INF073)

The Interfant cohort reports the same direction independently: two thirds of relapsing patients lost the diagnostic RAS mutation 3. The PCGP authors' conclusion is blunt and worth quoting as the field's current position: the loss of these mutations at relapse in a number of patients suggests that specifically targeting these activating lesions will likely provide little therapeutic benefit 1.

A RAS-directed drug in this disease would therefore be attacking, in most patients, a clone that is not the one that relapses.

But subclonal is not the same as irrelevant

Within the t(4;11) subgroup, patients with an activating pathway mutation were younger at diagnosis (mean 4.01 vs 6.75 months, P = 0.0473), and the effect was graded by clonality: mean age 2.77 months if the mutation was in the major clone, 5.09 months if in a minor clone, 6.75 months if absent (P = 0.0228) 1. Read backwards, that is a dose-response relationship between RAS-pathway clone size and how quickly overt leukemia appears. RAS activation looks like an accelerator of latency rather than an initiator or a maintainer.

Gene-set enrichment analysis in the same cohort confirmed RAS-pathway activation signatures at the expression level 1, so the pathway is on in these leukemias whether or not a mutation is detected — which is also the most plausible reading of why some RAS-wild-type samples respond to MEK inhibition 4.

Prognostic impact — two cohorts that genuinely disagree

For an independent adverse effect. In 109 infant ALL patients, RAS mutation was an independent predictor of poor outcome with a hazard ratio of 3.194 (95% CI 1.211-8.429, P = 0.019). RAS-mutant infants also had higher white-cell counts at diagnosis (P = 0.013) and their blasts were more resistant to glucocorticoids in vitro (P < 0.05) 2. Critically, the same analysis showed that RAS mutation, and not the absence of HOXA9 expression nor the expression of the reciprocal AF4-MLL product, was what associated with poor outcome in t(4;11) infants 2 — a claim that collides directly with the reciprocal-fusion prognostic literature (see cnv-reciprocal-derivative-chromosome-retention).

Against. In the PCGP cohort, patients with an activating pathway mutation showed only a trend toward poorer EFS and OS and increased cumulative incidence of relapse, which did not reach statistical significance, though the trend was stronger when the mutation was present at MAF above 30% 1. The PCGP outcome analysis was limited to 31-33 St. Jude patients, so this is an underpowered non-replication rather than a refutation.

The defensible synthesis: RAS-pathway mutation is probably an adverse marker when it is clonal, and probably close to neutral when it is subclonal, which is most of the time. RE-CHECKED 2026-09-20 and it still holds. A bounded query pairing KMT2A/MLL and infant with the RAS family and allele-frequency/clonality terms and an outcome term returned 8 records, all read, none of which stratifies outcome on RAS allele frequency; controls of the same shape returned 56, 192 and 571. So nobody has tested it by stratifying outcome on allele frequency in a large cohort — which is the obvious, cheap, and still-unrun analysis.

What the re-check did turn up, and this graph had not cited it. PMID 27698462 deep-sequenced RAS in 36 MLL-AF4-positive paediatric patients and found mutations including small subclones in 63.9% - against 25-50% by Sanger - which is a direct measurement of the undercounting this section argues for. In 17 paired samples, relapse RAS clones almost all came from clones already present at diagnosis that survived therapy. Set against that, the 124-patient Interfant-99/06 analysis reports RAS-pathway mutations as subclonal and frequently lost at relapse. Both are true and they pull opposite ways on whether clone size matters - which is precisely why the outcome-by-allele-frequency analysis is still the thing to run.

Functional cooperation — activated RAS is not a second hit that makes the leukemia

The cleanest experiment in this area was designed to answer exactly whether KMT2A::AFF1 needs a RAS hit 5.

Human cord-blood CD34+ haematopoietic stem/progenitor cells were transduced with KMT2A::AFF1, KRAS-G12V, or both, and transplanted intra-bone-marrow into immunodeficient mice. Results:

  • Clonogenic and differentiation assays: KRAS activation did not cooperate with KMT2A::AFF1 to immortalise CD34+ HSPCs.
  • Transplantation: KMT2A::AFF1 alone, KRAS-G12V alone, or both together enhanced haematopoietic repopulation without impairing myeloid-lymphoid differentiation, and without initiating leukemia.
  • What KRAS did do: it enhanced extramedullary haematopoiesis of KMT2A::AFF1-expressing cell lines and HSPCs, associated with leukocytosis and CNS infiltration — both hallmarks of infant t(4;11) B-ALL. Transcriptional profiling of KMT2A::AFF1 patient samples supported a cell-migration gene signature underlying the mutant-KRAS phenotype.

The authors' conclusion is that mutant KRAS in KMT2A::AFF1 B-ALL matters for tumour maintenance and dissemination rather than initiation 5. That fits the clinical genetics precisely: a subclonal lesion associated with higher white-cell count 2 and with CNS-tropic behaviour, arriving after the fusion, not with it.

Therapeutic angle: MEK inhibition, and the surprise in the wild-type arm

Primary KMT2A-r infant ALL cells were tested ex vivo against three MEK1/2 inhibitors — trametinib, selumetinib and binimetinib (MEK162) 4.

  • All RAS-mutant samples were sensitive; the inhibitors severely impaired primary RAS-mutant KMT2A-r infant ALL cells, reduced phospho-ERK and induced apoptosis.
  • Among RAS-wild-type cases, both sensitive and resistant samples were found, with no apparent downstream over-activation detectable in the wild-type samples to explain the sensitive ones.
  • MEK inhibition synergistically enhanced prednisolone sensitivity in both RAS-mutant and RAS-wild-type cells 4.

That last point is the interesting one, and it is the strongest argument for pursuing MEK inhibition despite the subclonality problem. If the benefit is glucocorticoid sensitisation rather than killing a RAS-mutant subclone, then the subclonal architecture and the loss of RAS mutations at relapse stop being disqualifying — the drug would be acting on the bulk population through a different mechanism, and RAS genotype would be the wrong selection biomarker. This also dovetails with the observation that RAS-mutant blasts are glucocorticoid-resistant in vitro 2: MEK inhibition may be reversing precisely the resistance the co-mutation confers.

No randomised trial of MEK inhibition in infant KMT2A-r ALL has reported. The realistic competitor for the same combination slot is now blinatumomab, which raised 2-year disease-free survival from 49.4% to 81.6% on the Interfant-06 backbone 6 and sets a bar that a MEK inhibitor would have to clear or complement.

Correction: this is a summary entry covering five genes, and the five now exist

The standing rule in this project is one entry per thing; never a summary entry covering several. This entry covers the RAS pathway as a unit, and until cycle 23 that was partly defensible because the members had no entries. They do now: gene-kras, gene-nras, gene-ptpn11, gene-nf1 and comut-pik3r1-kmt2a-r, each edged part_of this entry.

So this entry should be read as a pathway-level overview and not as the record for any member gene. The distinction matters here more than it usually would, because the members do not behave alike: PIK3R1's lesion is an inter-SH2 internal tandem duplication, a class that SNV pipelines handle worst, and it is the only cooperating lesion in this disease with a functional demonstration on the patients' own alleles. A pathway-level summary averages that away.

And the identifier hazard is unusually sharp in this family (brief rule 68, verified against live UniProt on 2026-09-20): KRAS, NRAS and HRAS are all exactly 189 aa, share hotspot codons, and HRAS1 is NRAS's only UniProt synonym while also being HRAS's synonym. The length assertion that verify-accessions.py relies on offers no protection at all here. A source that says only 'RAS mutation' is making a pathway claim, and this entry is where it belongs - it must not be silently assigned to a member gene.

Facts and figures
pathwayRTK / PI3K / RAS-MAPK signalling
frequency by cohort
St. Jude PCGP infant non-…18.0St. Jude PCGP infant non-KMT2A-r ALL: 18St. Jude PCGP non-infant …20.0St. Jude PCGP non-infant KMT2A-r leukemia 7-19 y: 20Interfant-99/06 discovery…42.0Interfant-99/06 discovery (KRAS or NRAS): 42St. Jude PCGP infant KMT2…47.0St. Jude PCGP infant KMT2A-r ALL: 47Interfant-99/06 validatio…82.0Interfant-99/06 validation (KRAS or NRAS): 82Interfant (Driessen) all …109.0Interfant (Driessen) all infant ALL, NRAS/KRAS/BRAF by Sanger: 109
age at diagnosis by clonality t4 11
p_value0.023p_value: 0.0228major_clone_mutation_mean…2.770major_clone_mutation_mean_months: 2.77minor_clone_mutation_mean…5.090minor_clone_mutation_mean_months: 5.09no_mutation_mean_months6.750no_mutation_mean_months: 6.75
member genes mutated in kmt2a r
[
  "KRAS",
  "NRAS",
  "FLT3",
  "PTPN11",
  "NF1",
  "PIK3CA",
  "PIK3R1",
  "CBL",
  "PIK3CD",
  "BRAF",
  "PPM1J"
]
frequency by cohort — the numbers behind the chart
[
  {
    "cohort": "St. Jude PCGP infant KMT2A-r ALL",
    "n": 47,
    "mutated": 22,
    "pct": 47,
    "assay": "WGS + 232-gene targeted",
    "pmid": "25730765",
    "title": "The landscape of somatic mutations in infant MLL-rearranged acute lymphoblastic leukemias.",
    "authors": "Andersson AK, Ma J, Wang J, et al.",
    "venue": "Nat Genet",
    "year": 2015,
    "title_provenance": "Title/authors/venue backfilled from PubMed esummary on 2026-09-20 because this citation stored a bare PMID with no title, which made it unscoreable by verify-citations.py. BACKFILLING IS NOT VERIFICATION: it confirms the PMID resolves to a real paper, not that this is the right paper for the claim. That still requires reading."
  },
  {
    "cohort": "St. Jude PCGP infant non-KMT2A-r ALL",
    "n": 18,
    "mutated": 7,
    "pct": 39,
    "p_vs_kmt2a_r": 0.59,
    "pmid": "25730765",
    "title": "The landscape of somatic mutations in infant MLL-rearranged acute lymphoblastic leukemias.",
    "authors": "Andersson AK, Ma J, Wang J, et al.",
    "venue": "Nat Genet",
    "year": 2015,
    "title_provenance": "Title/authors/venue backfilled from PubMed esummary on 2026-09-20 because this citation stored a bare PMID with no title, which made it unscoreable by verify-citations.py. BACKFILLING IS NOT VERIFICATION: it confirms the PMID resolves to a real paper, not that this is the right paper for the claim. That still requires reading."
  },
  {
    "cohort": "St. Jude PCGP non-infant KMT2A-r leukemia 7-19 y",
    "n": 20,
    "mutated": 10,
    "pct": 50,
    "pmid": "25730765",
    "title": "The landscape of somatic mutations in infant MLL-rearranged acute lymphoblastic leukemias.",
    "authors": "Andersson AK, Ma J, Wang J, et al.",
    "venue": "Nat Genet",
    "year": 2015,
    "title_provenance": "Title/authors/venue backfilled from PubMed esummary on 2026-09-20 because this citation stored a bare PMID with no title, which made it unscoreable by verify-citations.py. BACKFILLING IS NOT VERIFICATION: it confirms the PMID resolves to a real paper, not that this is the right paper for the claim. That still requires reading."
  },
  {
    "cohort": "Interfant-99/06 discovery (KRAS or NRAS)",
    "n": 42,
    "pct": 38,
    "pmid": "30679323",
    "title": "Unraveling the cellular origin and clinical prognostic markers of infant B-cell acute lymphoblastic leukemia using genome-wide analysis.",
    "authors": "Agraz-Doblas A, Bueno C, Bashford-Rogers R, et al.",
    "venue": "Haematologica",
    "year": 2019,
    "title_provenance": "Title/authors/venue backfilled from PubMed esummary on 2026-09-20 because this citation stored a bare PMID with no title, which made it unscoreable by verify-citations.py. BACKFILLING IS NOT VERIFICATION: it confirms the PMID resolves to a real paper, not that this is the right paper for the claim. That still requires reading."
  },
  {
    "cohort": "Interfant-99/06 validation (KRAS or NRAS)",
    "n": 82,
    "pct": 34,
    "pmid": "30679323",
    "title": "Unraveling the cellular origin and clinical prognostic markers of infant B-cell acute lymphoblastic leukemia using genome-wide analysis.",
    "authors": "Agraz-Doblas A, Bueno C, Bashford-Rogers R, et al.",
    "venue": "Haematologica",
    "year": 2019,
    "title_provenance": "Title/authors/venue backfilled from PubMed esummary on 2026-09-20 because this citation stored a bare PMID with no title, which made it unscoreable by verify-citations.py. BACKFILLING IS NOT VERIFICATION: it confirms the PMID resolves to a real paper, not that this is the right paper for the claim. That still requires reading."
  },
  {
    "cohort": "Interfant (Driessen) all infant ALL, NRAS/KRAS/BRAF by Sanger",
    "n": 109,
    "pct": 14,
    "pmid": "23403319",
    "title": "Frequencies and prognostic impact of RAS mutations in MLL-rearranged acute lymphoblastic leukemia in infants.",
    "authors": "Driessen EM, van Roon EH, Spijkers-Hagelstein JA, et al.",
    "venue": "Haematologica",
    "year": 2013,
    "title_provenance": "Title/authors/venue backfilled from PubMed esummary on 2026-09-20 because this citation stored a bare PMID with no title, which made it unscoreable by verify-citations.py. BACKFILLING IS NOT VERIFICATION: it confirms the PMID resolves to a real paper, not that this is the right paper for the claim. That still requires reading."
  },
  {
    "cohort": "Interfant (Driessen) t(4;11)-positive subset",
    "pct": 24,
    "p_vs_rest": 0.04,
    "pmid": "23403319",
    "title": "Frequencies and prognostic impact of RAS mutations in MLL-rearranged acute lymphoblastic leukemia in infants.",
    "authors": "Driessen EM, van Roon EH, Spijkers-Hagelstein JA, et al.",
    "venue": "Haematologica",
    "year": 2013,
    "title_provenance": "Title/authors/venue backfilled from PubMed esummary on 2026-09-20 because this citation stored a bare PMID with no title, which made it unscoreable by verify-citations.py. BACKFILLING IS NOT VERIFICATION: it confirms the PMID resolves to a real paper, not that this is the right paper for the claim. That still requires reading."
  }
]
subclonality
{
  "fraction_pathway_mutations_below_30pct_maf": "20/31 (65%)",
  "cases_with_2plus_pathway_mutations": 8,
  "of_those_all_below_30pct_maf": 6,
  "fraction_mutant_alleles_expressed": 1,
  "fraction_all_non_silent_snvs_expressed": 0.48,
  "non_infant_clonality": "majority in major clone, P < 0.0001 vs infants"
}
relapse dynamics
{
  "pcgp_matched_pairs_informative": 5,
  "maintained_or_increased": 2,
  "lost": 2,
  "decreased": 1,
  "decreased_maf_from_to": [
    0.39,
    0.15
  ],
  "interfant_fraction_losing_diagnostic_ras_at_relapse": "two thirds"
}
prognosis
{
  "driessen_hazard_ratio": 3.194,
  "driessen_ci95": [
    1.211,
    8.429
  ],
  "driessen_p": 0.019,
  "pcgp_result": "non-significant trend toward poorer EFS/OS and higher cumulative incidence of relapse; stronger if MAF > 30%",
  "status": "disputed between cohorts; most likely reconciled by clonality, untested"
}
age at diagnosis by clonality t4 11 — the numbers behind the chart
{
  "major_clone_mutation_mean_months": 2.77,
  "minor_clone_mutation_mean_months": 5.09,
  "no_mutation_mean_months": 6.75,
  "p_value": 0.0228
}
therapeutics
{
  "agents_tested_ex_vivo": [
    "trametinib",
    "selumetinib",
    "binimetinib (MEK162)"
  ],
  "target": "MEK1/2",
  "result": "all RAS-mutant primary samples sensitive; RAS-wild-type mixed; synergy with prednisolone in both genotypes",
  "clinical_trials_in_infant_kmt2a_r": "none reported as of this node's creation",
  "pmid": "27588400",
  "title": "MEK inhibition is a promising therapeutic strategy for MLL-rearranged infant acute lymphoblastic leukemia patients carrying RAS mutations.",
  "authors": "Kerstjens M, Driessen EM, Willekes M, et al.",
  "venue": "Oncotarget",
  "year": 2017,
  "title_provenance": "Title/authors/venue backfilled from PubMed esummary on 2026-09-20 because this citation stored a bare PMID with no title, which made it unscoreable by verify-citations.py. BACKFILLING IS NOT VERIFICATION: it confirms the PMID resolves to a real paper, not that this is the right paper for the claim. That still requires reading."
}
How this could bite us back
  • Resistance/futility: because the RAS-mutant clone is a minority in two thirds of cases and is lost at relapse in roughly two thirds of relapsing patients, a RAS/MEK-directed agent risks clearing a clone that was never going to cause relapse while consuming a combination slot and adding toxicity.
  • Compensation: MEK inhibition relieves negative feedback on upstream RTKs, and FLT3 is over-expressed in nearly every KMT2A-r blast. Reactivation of RAS-MAPK through ligand-independent FLT3 signalling is the predictable escape route in precisely this disease.
  • Selection biomarker failure: RAS genotype at diagnosis is measured on bulk DNA, which under-detects the subclones that carry most of these mutations. A trial enrolling on Sanger-level RAS status would systematically exclude two thirds of pathway-activated patients.
  • Delivery/toxicity in infants: MEK inhibitors cause rash, cardiac dysfunction and ocular toxicity, and neither trametinib nor selumetinib has established pharmacokinetics or safety in infants under one year, who are the entire target population here.
  • Lineage plasticity: pushing on a growth-signalling pathway does nothing to constrain the epigenetic plasticity that appears to drive relapse in this disease, so even a fully effective MEK inhibitor may leave the dominant failure mode untouched.
Still open
  1. Does outcome stratify on RAS mutant allele frequency rather than RAS mutation status? This single reanalysis of existing Interfant and PCGP data would reconcile the two cohorts' contradictory prognostic findings and has not been published.
  2. Is the benefit of MEK inhibition in KMT2A-r ALL actually glucocorticoid sensitisation of the bulk population rather than killing of a RAS-mutant subclone? If so, RAS genotype is the wrong enrolment biomarker and every future trial design built on it is mis-specified.
  3. Why do some RAS-wild-type KMT2A-r samples respond to MEK inhibition with no detectable downstream over-activation? Either the pathway readout is insensitive or MEK inhibitors have a relevant off-pathway effect in these cells. This is directly testable and unresolved.
  4. Six of eight cases with two or more pathway mutations had all of them subclonal — convergent parallel evolution onto one pathway. What is selecting for RAS activation in a KMT2A-r blast, given that it is not required for initiation or maintenance? The migration/CNS-tropism signature is one answer but has not been shown to be the selective pressure.
  5. Does RAS-pathway activation contribute to the myeloid lineage switch seen at relapse after CD19-directed therapy? RAS mutations are strongly associated with myeloid phenotypes elsewhere, and this link has not been examined in lineage-switch cases.
Every source behind this entry (7)
  1. E1strong confidence 4 of 5: Replicated in peer-reviewed work by more than one group.paper

    Activating mutations in tyrosine kinase/PI3K/RAS pathways occur in 22/47 (47%) infant KMT2A-r ALL cases and 10/20 (50%) non-infant KMT2A-r leukemias; 65% (20/31) of these mutations sit below 30% mutant allele frequency in infants, all mutant alleles are expressed, they are frequently lost at relapse (2 of 5 matched pairs), and their presence associates with younger age at diagnosis in t(4;11) (mean 4.01 vs 6.75 months, P = 0.0473) but not with a statistically significant outcome difference.

    The landscape of somatic mutations in infant MLL-rearranged acute lymphoblastic leukemias · Andersson AK, Ma J, Wang J, Chen X, Gedman AL, Dang J, et al. · Nature Genetics 47(4):330-7 2015
    What this evidence cannot show

    The 47% denominator combines 22 whole-genome cases with 25 validation cases sequenced only across 232 preselected genes. Relapse dynamics rest on 7 matched pairs, 5 informative — far too few to estimate a loss rate. Outcome analysis limited to 31-33 St. Jude patients and explicitly underpowered. Clonality inferred from mutant allele frequency without copy-number correction in every case.

    Evidence that argues against this (1)
    • A 109-patient Interfant cohort found RAS mutation to be an independent adverse prognostic factor (HR 3.194, P = 0.019), directly contradicting this cohort's non-significant trend. Driessen EMC et al. 2013
  2. E2strong confidence 4 of 5: Replicated in peer-reviewed work by more than one group.paper

    In 109 infant ALL patients screened by Sanger sequencing of NRAS, KRAS and BRAF, mutations were found in ~14% overall and ~24% of t(4;11)-positive patients (P = 0.04); RAS mutation was an independent predictor of poor outcome (HR 3.194, 95% CI 1.211-8.429, P = 0.019), associated with higher white-cell count at diagnosis (P = 0.013) and in vitro glucocorticoid resistance (P < 0.05); RAS mutation and not absent HOXA9 expression or AF4-MLL expression associated with poor outcome in t(4;11) infants.

    Frequencies and prognostic impact of RAS mutations in MLL-rearranged acute lymphoblastic leukemia in infants · Driessen EMC, van Roon EHJ, Spijkers-Hagelstein JAP, Schneider P, de Lorenzo P, Valsecchi MG, Pieters R, Stam RW · Haematologica 98(6):937-44 2013
    What this evidence cannot show

    Conventional Sanger sequencing cannot detect subclones below roughly 20% allele frequency, so the 14% figure is a floor and the cohort is enriched for clonal mutations — which may be exactly why it finds a prognostic effect that the subclone-sensitive PCGP cohort does not. Only three genes screened. Single trial consortium.

    Evidence that argues against this (1)
    • The PCGP cohort found only a non-significant trend toward poorer EFS/OS for pathway mutations, and stronger only when the mutation exceeded 30% allele frequency. Andersson AK et al. 2015
  3. E3strong confidence 4 of 5: Replicated in peer-reviewed work by more than one group.paper

    In 124 infant B-ALL cases from Interfant-99/06, recurrent mutations were found exclusively in KRAS and NRAS (38% of the 42-case discovery cohort, 34% of the 82-case validation cohort), NRAS mutations were significantly more frequent in t(4;11)-positive patients (32% vs 6%, P = 0.01), the mutations were subclonal, and two thirds of relapsing patients lost the diagnostic RAS mutation.

    Unraveling the cellular origin and clinical prognostic markers of infant B-cell acute lymphoblastic leukemia using genome-wide analysis · Agraz-Doblas A, Bueno C, Bashford-Rogers R, Roy A, Schneider P, Bardini M, et al. · Haematologica 104(6):1176-1188 2019
    What this evidence cannot show

    Discovery and validation arms used different assays, so the two frequencies are not strictly comparable. 'Exclusively KRAS and NRAS' reflects what reached recurrence thresholds in this cohort, not absence of other pathway lesions; it is a non-replication of PIK3CA/PIK3R1 recurrence rather than a refutation. Relapse loss rate rests on a small number of pairs.

    Evidence that argues against this (1)
    • The t(4;11) enrichment — 32% against 6%, P = 0.01 — is the kind of subgroup contrast that this cohort was not powered for and that the entry's own next clause undercuts: the mutations are subclonal and two thirds of relapsing patients lose them. A subclonal lesion enriched in one fusion subtype at diagnosis and absent at relapse is a marker of clonal structure, not of fusion-specific dependence. Leukemia 2021
  4. E4moderate confidence 3 of 5: One strong study, or several smaller consistent ones.paper

    The MEK inhibitors trametinib, selumetinib and MEK162 (binimetinib) severely impair primary RAS-mutant KMT2A-r infant ALL cells ex vivo, reducing phospho-ERK and inducing apoptosis; all RAS-mutant samples were sensitive while RAS-wild-type samples were mixed, and MEK inhibition synergistically enhanced prednisolone sensitivity in both RAS-mutant and RAS-wild-type cells.

    MEK inhibition is a promising therapeutic strategy for MLL-rearranged infant acute lymphoblastic leukemia patients carrying RAS mutations · Kerstjens M, Driessen EMC, Willekes M, Pinhanços SS, Schneider P, Pieters R, Stam RW · Oncotarget 8(9):14835-14846 2017
    What this evidence cannot show

    Ex vivo primary-cell cytotoxicity only; no xenograft or in vivo efficacy reported in the abstract, and no clinical data. Sample numbers per arm are not stated in the abstract. Published in Oncotarget, a journal later delisted from some indexes, so independent replication carries extra weight here. The synergy finding in RAS-wild-type cells is mechanistically unexplained, which makes it both the most interesting and the least secure result.

    Evidence that argues against this (1)
    • The genomic argument against pursuing this: because the RAS-mutant clone is usually a minority and is frequently lost at relapse, the PCGP authors concluded that specifically targeting these activating lesions will likely provide little therapeutic benefit. Andersson AK et al. 2015
  5. E5strong confidence 4 of 5: Replicated in peer-reviewed work by more than one group.paper

    Activated KRAS-G12V does not cooperate with KMT2A::AFF1 to immortalise or transform human cord-blood CD34+ HSPCs and does not initiate leukemia on intra-bone-marrow transplantation into immunodeficient mice; instead it enhances extramedullary haematopoiesis, leukocytosis and CNS infiltration, supported by a cell-migration gene signature in KMT2A::AFF1 patient samples, indicating a role in maintenance and dissemination rather than initiation.

    Activated KRAS Cooperates with MLL-AF4 to Promote Extramedullary Engraftment and Migration of Cord Blood CD34+ HSPC But Is Insufficient to Initiate Leukemia · Prieto C, Stam RW, Agraz-Doblas A, Ballerini P, Camos M, Castaño J, Marschalek R, Bursen A, Varela I, Bueno C, Menendez P · Cancer Research 76(8):2478-89 2016
    What this evidence cannot show

    A negative result in a xenograft system that has repeatedly failed to model KMT2A::AFF1 B-ALL at all, including with the fusion alone — so failure to transform may reflect the model's known limitations rather than the biology of RAS cooperation. Retroviral over-expression from a non-native promoter in the wrong cell of origin (cord blood rather than fetal liver). One RAS allele (KRAS-G12V) tested.

    Evidence that argues against this (1)
    • A negative in cord-blood CD34+ cells and immunodeficient mice bounds cooperation in that model, and the cell of origin for infant KMT2A-r ALL is fetal rather than neonatal. The same report's positive finding — enhanced extramedullary and CNS infiltration — is the biologically consequential one and the entry files it as a consolation. Leukemia 2021
  6. E6established confidence 5 of 5: Multiple independent lines of evidence; treated as settled in the field.paper

    Adding one postinduction course of blinatumomab to Interfant-06 chemotherapy in 30 newly diagnosed infants with KMT2A-r ALL gave 2-year disease-free survival of 81.6% (95% CI 60.8-92.0) versus 49.4% (42.5-56.0) in Interfant-06 historical controls, setting the bar any co-lesion-directed combination must clear.

    Blinatumomab Added to Chemotherapy in Infant Lymphoblastic Leukemia · van der Sluis IM, de Lorenzo P, Kotecha RS, Attarbaschi A, Escherich G, Nysom K, et al. · New England Journal of Medicine 388(17):1572-1581 2023
    What this evidence cannot show

    Single-arm, n = 30, median follow-up 26.3 months, compared against historical controls rather than a randomised arm; the primary endpoint was toxicity, not efficacy. Cited here only to establish the competing standard, not as a comparison against MEK inhibition, which has never been tested clinically in this population. **Regraded moderate -> established on 2026-09-20** under `concept-the-confidence-grading-rule`: this is the trial's own reported result, which is established as a fact about what the trial found.

    Evidence that argues against this (1)
    • Thirty patients against historical controls is the weakest admissible comparison: Interfant-06 controls were treated earlier, with different supportive care and different transplant practice, and the 2-year interval of 60.8 to 92.0 overlaps the range any modern cohort would produce. As a bar for co-lesion-directed combinations it is provisional. Leukemia 2021
  7. E7strong confidence 4 of 5: Replicated in peer-reviewed work by more than one group.journal-article

    In 36 paediatric patients with MLL-AF4-positive B-cell precursor ALL, next-generation amplicon deep sequencing detected RAS mutations including small subclones in 63.9% of patients, against the 25-50% incidence previously reported using Sanger sequencing; and in 17 paired diagnosis-relapse samples the RAS-mutant clones present at relapse almost all originated from clones already detectable at diagnosis that survived initial therapy.

    What this evidence cannot show

    **Paediatric MLL-AF4-positive BCP-ALL, which is the index fusion** - but the cohort is 36 patients and is described as paediatric rather than infant-restricted, so the age distribution is not the Interfant population (rule 73). **Detection rate is method-dependent by construction**: 63.9% versus 25-50% is a statement about amplicon deep sequencing versus Sanger, and deep sequencing of a targeted panel will find subclones that any lower-sensitivity method misses - the figure should not be compared with class-level rates obtained by whole-genome sequencing. The paired analysis covers 17 patients, so the clone-origin claim rests on a small series.

    Evidence that argues against this (1)
    • Clones detectable at diagnosis surviving to relapse does NOT establish that they drove the relapse - a subclone can persist without being the one that expands, and the same Interfant-99/06 genome-wide analysis of 124 infants reports that the recurrent RAS-pathway mutations were subclonal and were FREQUENTLY LOST at relapse. Those two observations are not contradictory but they point opposite ways on whether RAS clone size matters for outcome, which is exactly the question nobody has tested directly. Agraz-Doblas A et al. 2019
Connected to