The near-silent genome of infant KMT2A-r ALL — 1.3 non-silent mutations, and why that is bad news as well as good
also called silent mutational landscape infant MLL-AF4 · low tumour mutational burden infant MLL-rearranged ALL · one-hit leukemia
Most cancers carry hundreds or thousands of broken genes, but infant leukemia driven by a KMT2A fusion carries on average just over one extra mutation — the fusion does almost all the work by itself. That makes the fusion an unusually clean target, but it also means there is no second broken gene to attack and no obvious explanation for why the disease comes back so often.
The same thing, for a scientist
Whole-genome, exome, RNA and targeted sequencing of infant KMT2A-rearranged ALL shows one of the lowest somatic coding mutation rates of any sequenced human cancer. In the St. Jude/Washington University Pediatric Cancer Genome Project cohort the dominant leukemic clone carries a mean of 1.3 non-silent mutations per case (only 0.6 of them expressed), and a second, independent 124-patient Interfant-99/06 cohort reports a mean of ~1 genomic rearrangement and 2.5 non-silent SNVs per case, calling it the most silent landscape reported for any sequenced pediatric cancer. The burden is age-dependent within the same fusion: non-infant KMT2A-r leukemia averages 6.5 non-silent mutations per case and carries frequent mutations in epigenetic regulators that are nearly absent in infants. The therapeutic implication is two-sided — few pre-existing resistant subclones and a single dominant driver, but no co-target, no synthetic-lethal partner handed over, and a genome that cannot account for a ~50% relapse rate by mutation alone.
The number, and the denominators behind it2 deeper
Two independent cohorts, sequenced by different consortia on different protocols, agree.
St. Jude/Washington University PCGP 1. Paired-end whole-genome sequencing of 22 infants with KMT2A-r ALL plus matched remission material (average haploid coverage 39x), extended by targeted sequencing of 232 genes and SNP arrays in a validation cohort of 43 further infant leukemias (25 KMT2A-r) and 18 infant non-KMT2A-r cases, plus whole-exome sequencing of 20 non-infant KMT2A-r leukemias aged 7-19 years.
- Across the whole genome: a mean of 111 somatic sequence mutations per case (range 29-229) and 10 CNAs/SVs per case (range 2-26).
- Restricted to coding regions and regulatory RNAs: 8.2 events per case, of which 2.2 non-silent SNVs (range 0-4) and 6.0 CNA/SVs (range 2-19).
- Restricted to the dominant leukemic clone: a mean of 1.3 non-silent mutations per case, of which only 0.6 are expressed at the RNA level.
That last figure is the one worth remembering, because it is the number of coding lesions actually present in every leukemic cell. Only pediatric low-grade glioma — a clinically indolent tumour — has a lower somatic coding mutation count among sequenced cancers; the rate here is 2- to 180-fold lower than reported adult and pediatric cancers 1.
Interfant-99/06 3. Multi-layered genome-wide analysis of 124 infant B-ALL cases uniformly diagnosed and treated on a single protocol found an average of one genomic rearrangement and 2.5 non-silent single-nucleotide variants per case, described by the authors as the most silent mutational landscape reported so far for any sequenced pediatric cancer.
A three-patient whole-genome pilot 2 reached the same conclusion first, from a different direction: whole-genome sequencing of diagnostic blasts and matched germline from three infant KMT2A::AFF1 pro-B ALL cases found very few somatic changes of any class — copy-number, loss of heterozygosity or SNV — and concluded that only a very small number of mutations are needed to generate infant KMT2A-r leukemia.
Why 'silent' is the right word and 'clean' is the wrong one
The low count is not an artefact of low tumour purity. Average purity in the PCGP whole-genome cases was 92% (range 74-100%), and 40% of the somatic SNVs still sat at a mutant allele frequency below 30% 1. Custom capture at an average of 437x across all tier 1-3 mutations in five cases confirmed substantial intra-tumour heterogeneity, with one case resolving into five related clones at 6.25-50% population frequency.
So the correct picture is not a monoclonal tumour with one mutation. It is a tumour in which the fusion is clonal and everything else is subclonal. Mutational burden and clonal architecture are different axes, and this disease is unusual on both.
The same fusion in an older child is not the same genome
This is the strongest internal control in the dataset, because the driver is held constant and only the host age changes 1.
| infant KMT2A-r ALL | non-infant KMT2A-r leukemia (7-19 y) | |
|---|---|---|
| non-silent mutations/case (major clone) | 1.3 | 6.5 (P = 7.15 x 10^-5) |
| expressed non-silent mutations/case | 0.6 | 3.2 (significant; exponent not legible in the retrieved text, so not quoted) |
| CNAs/case | 1.0 | 2.6 (P = 0.0234) |
| cases with epigenetic-regulator mutations | 3/22 (14%) | 9/20 (45%) (P = 0.04) |
| clonality of pathway mutations | mostly minor clones | mostly major clone (P < 0.0001) |
| focal PAX5 lesion | 5/22 (23%) | 0/20 |
Multiple linear regression showed the excess in older children could not be attributed to a difference in basal mutation rate alone. The authors' reading — which is also the most interesting hypothesis in the paper for this project — is that the infant target cell already sits in a chromatin state permissive to KMT2A-fusion transformation, so the fusion needs no epigenetic co-mutations; the older target cell does not, and has to buy that state with somatic mutations in CHD4, SETD2, CREBBP, KDM6A, NSD1, KAT6A, TET3 and others 1.
If true, that reframes the whole beat: the co-lesions an older child acquires are, functionally, a substitute for the fetal chromatin state an infant gets for free.
What a near-silent genome means for therapy — both directions
In favour of the fusion-directed strategy. A single clonal driver with 1.3 accompanying coding lesions means: (i) the fusion is not one hit among many but the hit, so fusion-directed agents are attacking the actual dependency rather than a passenger; (ii) the pre-existing pool of resistance mutations is small, because there simply are not many mutations to draw from; (iii) there is no high background mutation rate to generate new resistance quickly, since the mutation spectrum showed no signature of a specific mutational mechanism (the commonest change being ordinary C>T/G>A transition) 1. The paper's own conclusion is explicit: because the fusion is a potent driver and the cells lack a high mutational rate, therapy directed at the fusion protein or its required cofactors is the rational approach.
Against. The same silence removes the standard oncology playbook.
- No co-target. There is no second recurrent driver to hit in combination. The only frequent co-lesion class is kinase/PI3K/RAS signalling (47% of cases), and it is largely subclonal and frequently lost at relapse, which is why the PCGP authors concluded that specifically targeting those lesions will likely provide little therapeutic benefit 1. See
comut-ras-pathway-kmt2a-r. - No synthetic-lethal partner. Synthetic lethality needs a loss-of-function lesion to exploit. Infant KMT2A-r ALL has essentially none: no recurrent TP53, no recurrent CDKN2A/B (4/47, 8.5%), no recurrent IKZF1, no PTEN 1, 3. Any vulnerability in this disease has to be a fusion-created dependency, not an inherited genetic scar. See
cnv-copy-number-landscape-kmt2a-r-all. - No mutational-burden-driven immunogenicity. A genome with 1.3 non-silent mutations generates almost no neoantigens. Whatever makes this disease responsive to CD19-directed immunotherapy, it is not tumour mutational burden.
- Biomarker vacuum. With nothing recurrent to sequence beyond the fusion itself, risk stratification in Interfant-06 still runs on age, white-cell count, prednisone response and fusion partner rather than on any co-mutation 4.
The central tension: how does a genome with one extra mutation relapse this readily?2 deeper
Infant KMT2A-r ALL is simultaneously one of the least mutated and one of the most refractory cancers in children. The Interfant-06 international phase III study of 651 infants reported 6-year event-free survival of 46.1% (SE 2.1) and overall survival of 58.2% (SE 2.0); in the high-risk group 6-year EFS was 20.9% (SE 3.4), and KMT2A rearrangement was the single strongest prognostic factor 4. Relapse is also fast: most relapses occur during treatment, two thirds within one year and 90% within two years of diagnosis 7.
A mutation-accumulation model cannot produce that. Three candidate explanations are on the table, and the evidence is unequal between them.
1. Epigenetic and transcriptional plasticity (best supported). Integrated genome-wide DNA methylome and transcriptome analysis of 69 de novo infant B-ALL cases treated on Interfant-99/06 found methylome signatures concentrated in chromatin states related to enhancer and transcriptional control, with coordinated hypomethylation and over-expression of the AP-1 members FOS and JUN and of RUNX factors specifically in KMT2A-r cases. Pharmacological inhibition or functional ablation of AP-1 dramatically impaired KMT2A-r leukemic growth in vitro and in patient-derived xenografts 5. This is the most direct evidence that the state space this leukemia can move through is epigenetic rather than genetic, and the authors frame it exactly that way: as predicted by its prenatal origin, the silent DNA landscape implies alternative epigenetic mechanisms substantially contribute to leukemogenesis.
2. Subclonal RAS escape (real but partly refuted as a relapse mechanism). 65% (20/31) of the activating kinase/PI3K/RAS mutations sat at MAF below 30%, and in seven matched diagnosis-relapse pairs the mutation was maintained or increased in two, decreased in one (MAF 39% to 15%) and lost in two 1. The Interfant cohort concurs: two thirds of relapsing patients lost the diagnostic RAS mutation 3. So subclonal RAS is a plausible source of clonal diversity at diagnosis, but it is demonstrably not the clone that usually comes back. Clonal-evolution analysis in two PCGP patients who relapsed three years out showed relapse arising from a minor diagnostic clone present at ~6.25%, which then acquired further mutations under treatment 1 — the mechanism is selection of a rare pre-existing clone, not acquisition of a new driver.
3. Lineage switch (rare, mechanistically important, and increasingly visible). Under lineage-directed pressure the same clone can change lineage rather than mutate. In 231 children and young adults receiving CD19-directed CAR T-cell therapy, KMT2A-r infant ALL (n = 13) achieved 2-year relapse-free survival of 67% and overall survival of 62% with no increased hazard of relapse overall (HR 0.70, 95% CI 0.21-2.90), but a higher proportion of relapses associated with myeloid lineage switch and a 3.6-fold increased risk of all-cause death (95% CI 1.04-12.75, P = 0.0434) 6. A documented single case in a t(1;11) infant traced the identical three dominant IGH/IGL clonal sequences through the original B-ALL, the lineage-switched AML and the post-transplant B-ALL relapse — i.e. reprogramming of one clone, not emergence of a genetically distinct one 8.
All three candidates share a feature: they are ways of changing phenotype without changing genotype. That is precisely what a near-silent genome forces a cancer to do, and it is the argument for why this disease is an epigenetics problem dressed as a genetics problem.
A falsifiable version of the plasticity claim
If plasticity rather than mutation drives relapse, then paired diagnosis-relapse samples should show large shifts in chromatin accessibility, DNA methylation and lineage-program expression with little or no gain of driver mutations. The PCGP pairs partially contradict this: relapse in both analysed patients was associated with a marked increase in the total number of SNVs and CNAs/SVs 1. That increase is treatment-induced and mostly passenger, but it means 'relapse without genetic change' is too strong a claim as stated. The honest version is: relapse involves genetic change that does not include a new recurrent driver. Distinguishing 'no new driver' from 'a new driver we cannot recognise' has not been done at scale in this disease.
What would refute the low-burden claim itself
The number is a coding, single-nucleotide-plus-indel count. It says nothing about non-coding drivers, structural variation below array resolution, or epigenetic lesions. Three specific escapes remain open: (i) recurrent non-coding regulatory mutations, which the PCGP tier 2 annotation covered but was not powered to call recurrently; (ii) small structural variants at the KMT2A breakpoint that were folded into the 'MLL-related' half of the 133 detected SVs/CNAs and therefore never counted as independent co-lesions — removing MLL-related events drops the CNA/SV count from 6.0 to 3.0 per case, so nearly half of the structural burden is bookkeeping attached to the fusion itself 1; and (iii) the reciprocal derivative chromosome, which in this cohort produced two in-frame reciprocal fusion proteins involving cancer genes — KRAS-MLL and AFF1-RAD51B-MLL 1 — a class of second hit that a mutation count does not see at all. See cnv-reciprocal-derivative-chromosome-retention.
An independent check on the numbers
Querying the public curation of the same PCGP study (cBioPortal study all_stjude_2015, 93 sequenced samples, API retrieved 2026-09-18) returns, across all samples, the following variant counts in the kinase/PI3K/RAS genes the paper names 9: KRAS 14 mutations in 12 samples; NRAS 8 in 8; FLT3 5 in 5; PIK3CA 4 in 4; PIK3R1 3 in 3; NF1 1 in 1; PTPN11 0. The structural-variant profile contains 13 distinct KMT2A partner combinations, including KRAS::KMT2A and RAD51B::KMT2A, matching the two reciprocal in-frame products reported in the paper.
This is a useful sanity check with one caveat worth flagging: the curated variant table does not contain a PTPN11 mutation, although the paper's text names PTPN11 among the non-recurrent pathway genes in both the infant and non-infant cohorts. Whichever is right, PTPN11 in this disease rests on at most one or two cases. See comut-ptpn11-kmt2a-r.
| genome build note | No coordinates are asserted in this node. The PCGP analysis used NCBI build 36/37 (GRCh37-lite) for WGS and RNA-seq alignment; any downstream coordinate work should be lifted to GRCh38 explicitly. |
|---|
headline metric
{
"metric": "mean non-silent somatic mutations per case in the dominant leukemic clone",
"value": 1.3,
"expressed_at_rna": 0.6,
"cohort": "St. Jude / Washington University Pediatric Cancer Genome Project, infant KMT2A-r ALL",
"n_whole_genome": 22,
"n_kmt2a_r_infants_total": 47,
"pmid": "25730765",
"title": "The landscape of somatic mutations in infant MLL-rearranged acute lymphoblastic leukemias.",
"authors": "Andersson AK, Ma J, Wang J, et al.",
"venue": "Nat Genet",
"year": 2015,
"title_provenance": "Title/authors/venue backfilled from PubMed esummary on 2026-09-20 because this citation stored a bare PMID with no title, which made it unscoreable by verify-citations.py. BACKFILLING IS NOT VERIFICATION: it confirms the PMID resolves to a real paper, not that this is the right paper for the claim. That still requires reading."
}burden by cohort — the numbers behind the chart
[
{
"cohort": "PCGP infant KMT2A-r ALL, whole genome, all somatic SNVs",
"value": 111,
"range": [
29,
229
],
"unit": "mutations/case"
},
{
"cohort": "PCGP infant KMT2A-r ALL, coding + regulatory RNA",
"value": 8.2,
"unit": "events/case"
},
{
"cohort": "PCGP infant KMT2A-r ALL, non-silent SNVs (all clones)",
"value": 2.2,
"range": [
0,
4
],
"unit": "mutations/case"
},
{
"cohort": "PCGP infant KMT2A-r ALL, non-silent, dominant clone",
"value": 1.3,
"unit": "mutations/case"
},
{
"cohort": "PCGP non-infant KMT2A-r leukemia (7-19 y, n=20)",
"value": 6.5,
"unit": "mutations/case",
"p_vs_infant": "7.15e-5"
},
{
"cohort": "Interfant-99/06 infant B-ALL (n=124)",
"value": 2.5,
"unit": "non-silent SNVs/case",
"plus": "1 genomic rearrangement/case"
}
]cna burden
{
"infant_kmt2a_r": 1,
"infant_non_kmt2a_r": 2.2,
"non_infant_kmt2a_r": 2.6,
"unit": "CNAs/case",
"p_infant_vs_non_infant": 0.0234,
"note": "Of 133 SVs/CNAs affecting annotated genes across the 22 whole-genome cases, 67 (~half) were a direct consequence of the KMT2A rearrangement; excluding these drops the mean from 6.0 to 3.0 SV/CNA per case."
}subclonality
{
"fraction_snvs_below_30pct_maf": 0.4,
"mean_tumour_purity": 0.92,
"purity_range": [
0.74,
1
],
"fraction_pathway_mutations_below_30pct_maf": "20/31 (65%)",
"deep_capture_coverage_x": 437,
"max_clones_resolved_in_one_diagnostic_sample": 5,
"relapse_founder_clone_frequency_at_diagnosis_pct": 6.25
}epigenetic regulator mutations
{
"infant_kmt2a_r": "3/22 (14%)",
"non_infant_kmt2a_r": "9/20 (45%)",
"p_value": 0.04,
"genes_in_non_infant": [
"CHD4",
"SETD2",
"CREBBP",
"L3MBTL3",
"ATR",
"KAT6A",
"KDM6A",
"NSD1",
"PARP8",
"SUPT3H",
"TET3"
]
}outcome context
{
"interfant_06_n": 651,
"efs_6yr_pct": 46.1,
"efs_6yr_se": 2.1,
"os_6yr_pct": 58.2,
"os_6yr_se": 2,
"high_risk_efs_6yr_pct": 20.9,
"relapse_timing": "most during treatment; 2/3 within 1 year, 90% within 2 years",
"blinatumomab_2yr_dfs_pct": 81.6,
"blinatumomab_control_2yr_dfs_pct": 49.4
}database IDS
{
"cbioportal_study": "all_stjude_2015",
"cbioportal_n_sequenced_samples": 93,
"retrieved": "2026-09-18"
}- Resistance: the low burden argues for few pre-existing resistance mutations, but it does not protect against non-genetic resistance. Lineage switch to AML under CD19-directed pressure is documented in this exact subtype and carries a 3.6-fold increased risk of death; a fusion-directed drug creates a different selective pressure but the same plasticity is available.
- No co-target: combination strategy in this disease cannot be built on a second recurrent driver, because there is not one. Any combination has to pair a fusion-directed agent with something aimed at a fusion-created dependency or at the epigenetic state, which is a much harder discovery problem than co-mutation mining.
- False reassurance from subclonal RAS: because RAS mutations are subclonal and frequently lost at relapse, a RAS/MEK-directed combination may show early activity against a clone that was never going to cause the relapse, wasting a combination slot and toxicity budget.
- Essential-function toxicity: the therapeutic logic here funnels everything onto the fusion and its required cofactors (menin, DOT1L, the elongation machinery). Those cofactors are shared with normal haematopoiesis, so the low mutation burden concentrates rather than reduces on-target toxicity risk.
- Biomarker failure: with no recurrent co-lesion, there is no molecular marker to select patients for or monitor escape from a targeted agent beyond the fusion transcript itself. Trials will be forced onto clinical stratifiers that have already failed to improve outcome across Interfant-99 and -06.
- Is the low mutation burden a property of the infant target cell or of the fusion? The clean test is to sequence KMT2A-r leukemias matched for fusion partner across the full age range and ask whether burden tracks age continuously or steps at a developmental boundary. The PCGP data hint at a step (1.3 vs 6.5) but the comparison groups differ in lineage as well as age.
- Do epigenetic-regulator mutations in older children functionally substitute for the fetal chromatin state infants have for free? Introducing the specific CHD4, KDM6A or NSD1 lesions found in non-infant cases into an adult-derived KMT2A-r model should permit transformation that the fusion alone cannot achieve. Nobody has tried this.
- If relapse arises from a ~6% minor clone rather than a new driver, what distinguishes that clone at diagnosis? It is not RAS status, since RAS mutations are usually lost. Single-cell multiome on diagnostic samples with known relapse outcomes would answer this and has not been published in infant KMT2A-r ALL.
- Has anyone looked for recurrent NON-CODING drivers in this disease at adequate power? Every published burden figure is a coding count. A 124-case whole-genome cohort analysed for recurrent regulatory mutations is the single most likely place a missed co-driver is hiding.
- Why does a genome with ~1 neoantigen respond so well to blinatumomab (2-year DFS 81.6%)? If the answer is that response is independent of mutational burden, the field should stop using burden as a proxy for immunotherapy benefit in pediatric leukemia.
- E1established confidence 5 of 5: Multiple independent lines of evidence; treated as settled in the field.paper
Infant KMT2A-rearranged ALL has one of the lowest somatic coding mutation frequencies of any sequenced cancer, with the dominant leukemic clone carrying a mean of 1.3 non-silent mutations per case (0.6 expressed); non-infant KMT2A-r leukemia carries a mean of 6.5 (P = 7.15 x 10^-5), more CNAs (2.6 vs 1.0/case, P = 0.0234) and far more epigenetic-regulator mutations (9/20, 45% vs 3/22, 14%; P = 0.04).
The landscape of somatic mutations in infant MLL-rearranged acute lymphoblastic leukemias · Andersson AK, Ma J, Wang J, Chen X, Gedman AL, Dang J, et al. · Nature Genetics 47(4):330-7 2015What this evidence cannot show
Discovery whole-genome cohort is only 22 infants; the 47 KMT2A-r infant figure combines whole-genome discovery with targeted sequencing of 232 selected genes in the validation cohort, so the validation arm could not detect novel drivers outside that panel and is not a genome-wide mutation count. The non-infant comparison group (n = 20) mixes 9 ALL, 10 AML and 1 acute undifferentiated leukemia, so disease lineage and age are confounded. Outcome analyses were restricted to 31-33 St. Jude patients and are underpowered. All cases were diagnosed 1992-2008 and treated on heterogeneous regimens.
Evidence that argues against this (1)
- A low mutation count does not mean a simple tumour: 40% of somatic SNVs in the same cohort sat below 30% mutant allele frequency at 92% average purity, and deep capture resolved up to five related subclones in a single diagnostic sample. Burden and clonal complexity dissociate here. Andersson AK et al. 2015
- E2moderate confidence 3 of 5: One strong study, or several smaller consistent ones.paper
Whole-genome sequencing of diagnostic blasts and matched germline from three infant MLL-AF4 (KMT2A::AFF1) pro-B ALL cases revealed very few somatic changes of any class, demonstrating that only a very small number of mutations is necessary to generate infant KMT2A-r leukemia.
The silent mutational landscape of infant MLL-AF4 pro-B acute lymphoblastic leukemia · Dobbins SE, Sherborne AL, Ma YP, Bardini M, Biondi A, Cazzaniga G, Lloyd A, Chubb D, Greaves MF, Houlston RS · Genes, Chromosomes & Cancer 52(10):954-60 2013What this evidence cannot show
n = 3. Indexed by PubMed as a case report. No power to estimate a rate, no power to exclude a recurrent co-driver, and no relapse material. Its value is as the first independent, hypothesis-free confirmation, not as a measurement.
Evidence that argues against this (1)
- Three cases is the whole cohort, and "very few somatic changes of any class" depends on what the platform could see: whole-genome short-read sequencing of that era detects point mutations well, structural variants moderately and complex rearrangements, repeat expansions and epigenetic lesions poorly. A silent genome on one assay is not a silent genome. Journal of Molecular Diagnostics 2013
- E3strong confidence 4 of 5: Replicated in peer-reviewed work by more than one group.paper
In 124 infant B-ALL cases uniformly diagnosed and treated on Interfant-99/06, the average burden was one genomic rearrangement and 2.5 non-silent single-nucleotide variants per case — the most silent mutational landscape reported for any sequenced pediatric cancer; recurrent mutations were found exclusively in KRAS and NRAS, were subclonal, and two thirds of relapsing patients lost the diagnostic RAS mutation.
Unraveling the cellular origin and clinical prognostic markers of infant B-cell acute lymphoblastic leukemia using genome-wide analysis · Agraz-Doblas A, Bueno C, Bashford-Rogers R, Roy A, Schneider P, Bardini M, et al. · Haematologica 104(6):1176-1188 2019What this evidence cannot show
Split into a 42-case discovery and 82-case validation arm with different assays, so the 2.5 SNV/case figure does not apply uniformly to all 124. Relapse dynamics rest on a small number of paired samples. Restricted to infant B-ALL on one protocol, so it cannot speak to KMT2A-r outside infancy.
Evidence that argues against this (1)
- "The most silent mutational landscape reported for any sequenced pediatric cancer" is a superlative over the set of cancers sequenced at the time on comparable platforms, which is a claim about the sample rather than about infant ALL. This project has already had to withdraw one superlative of exactly this shape when the sample was enlarged. Oncofusion knowledge graph (internal analysis) 2026
- E4established confidence 5 of 5: Multiple independent lines of evidence; treated as settled in the field.paper
Despite the near-silent genome, outcome is poor: in Interfant-06 (651 infants, 18 study groups) 6-year event-free survival was 46.1% (SE 2.1) and overall survival 58.2% (SE 2.0), with 6-year EFS of only 20.9% (SE 3.4) in the high-risk group, and KMT2A rearrangement was the strongest prognostic factor for EFS.
Outcome of Infants Younger Than 1 Year With Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia Treated With the Interfant-06 Protocol: Results From an International Phase III Randomized Study · Pieters R, De Lorenzo P, Ancliffe P, Aversa LA, Brethon B, Biondi A, et al. · Journal of Clinical Oncology 37(25):2246-2256 2019What this evidence cannot show
Outcome varied by region (West European/North American groups 10-12% better EFS than other countries), so the pooled figure blends health-system effects with biology. In the high-risk arm only 46% of patients intended for transplant actually received it because of early events, so the transplant question is not answered. Outcome did not improve versus Interfant-99, which is itself the point.
Evidence that argues against this (1)
- Outcome is not fixed by the genome: adding a single postinduction course of blinatumomab to the same Interfant-06 backbone in 30 newly diagnosed infants raised 2-year disease-free survival to 81.6% (95% CI 60.8-92.0) versus 49.4% (42.5-56.0) in Interfant-06 historical controls. A genome that cannot be drugged can still be a disease that can be treated. van der Sluis IM et al. 2023
- E5strong confidence 4 of 5: Replicated in peer-reviewed work by more than one group.paper
Integrated DNA methylome and transcriptome analysis of 69 de novo infant B-ALL cases on Interfant-99/06 shows KMT2A-r-specific methylome alterations concentrated in enhancer and transcriptional-control chromatin states, with coordinated hypomethylation and over-expression of AP-1 (FOS, JUN) and RUNX factors; inhibiting or ablating AP-1 dramatically impaired KMT2A-r leukemic growth in vitro and in patient-derived xenografts.
Integrative methylome-transcriptome analysis unravels cancer cell vulnerabilities in infant MLL-rearranged B cell acute lymphoblastic leukemia · Tejedor JR, Bueno C, Vinyoles M, Petazzi P, Agraz-Doblas A, Cobo I, et al. · Journal of Clinical Investigation 131(13):e138833 2021What this evidence cannot show
Association between methylation and expression is correlative; the AP-1 dependency is a functional result but AP-1 inhibitors are broadly active and the specificity for KMT2A-r over other leukemias is not established by this design. It shows that epigenetic state is functionally load-bearing; it does not show that epigenetic plasticity is what causes relapse, which is the inference this node draws and which remains untested.
Evidence that argues against this (1)
- A methylome that differs is not a methylome that drives. The AP-1 and RUNX coordination is correlative across 69 cases, and hypomethylation at enhancers is a general feature of proliferating progenitors, so the KMT2A-r specificity depends on the comparison group being matched for cell state rather than only for diagnosis. Oncofusion knowledge graph (internal analysis) 2026
- E6moderate confidence 3 of 5: One strong study, or several smaller consistent ones.paper
Among 231 children and young adults treated on CD19-directed CAR T-cell trials or commercial tisagenlecleucel, KMT2A-r infant ALL (n = 13) showed 2-year relapse-free survival of 67% and overall survival of 62% with no increased hazard of relapse (HR 0.70, 95% CI 0.21-2.90, P = 0.7040) but a higher proportion of relapses associated with myeloid lineage switch and a 3.6-fold increased risk of all-cause death (95% CI 1.04-12.75, P = 0.0434).
Impact of high-risk cytogenetics on outcomes for children and young adults receiving CD19-directed CAR T-cell therapy · Leahy AB, Devine KJ, Li Y, Liu H, Myers R, DiNofia A, et al. · Blood 139(14):2173-2185 2022What this evidence cannot show
n = 13 for the KMT2A-r infant subgroup; the 95% CI on the death hazard (1.04-12.75) barely excludes 1 and the lineage-switch finding is described as a proportion, not a tested rate. Retrospective across five trials plus commercial product, April 2012 to April 2019, in a relapsed/refractory population already selected for treatment failure. This is a signal, not a rate.
Evidence that argues against this (1)
- Thirteen patients, and the entry states the key numbers as point estimates: 67% and 62% survival in 13 people carry intervals wide enough to include both a good and a poor outcome. The relapse hazard ratio of 0.70 with an interval from 0.21 to 2.90 is an uninformative result being read as reassurance. Leukemia 2021
- E7moderate confidence 3 of 5: One strong study, or several smaller consistent ones.paper
In KMT2A-rearranged infant ALL most relapses occur during treatment, with two thirds within one year and 90% within two years of diagnosis, and 3-year event-free survival below 40%.
Blinatumomab Added to Chemotherapy in Infant Lymphoblastic Leukemia · van der Sluis IM, de Lorenzo P, Kotecha RS, Attarbaschi A, Escherich G, Nysom K, et al. · New England Journal of Medicine 388(17):1572-1581 2023What this evidence cannot show
The relapse-timing figures are background statements framing the trial rationale rather than that trial's own primary endpoint; the trial itself is a 30-patient single-arm study with a median follow-up of 26.3 months compared against historical controls. **Regraded established -> moderate on 2026-09-20** under `concept-the-confidence-grading-rule`: this is background epidemiology quoted in the paper's introduction, not a result of this trial, so it is an inference from sources the paper cites rather than from its own data.
Evidence that argues against this (1)
- These relapse figures are the historical arm of the trial that superseded them. The same study added blinatumomab to the Interfant-06 backbone and reported substantially better outcomes, so 'two thirds of relapses within one year' and '3-year EFS below 40%' describe the chemotherapy-only era rather than current practice. Quoting them alongside a mutation-burden argument implies a stable natural history that the immunotherapy data contradict. New England Journal of Medicine 2023
- E8weak confidence 2 of 5: Preliminary, small, indirect, or not yet peer reviewed.paper
A KMT2A-r infant B-ALL that underwent lineage switch to AML after blinatumomab, then relapsed as B-ALL after transplant, carried the same three dominant IGH/IGL clonal sequences through all three phases, indicating cellular reprogramming of one clone rather than emergence of a genetically distinct clone.
Lineage Switch in an Infant B-Lymphoblastic Leukemia With t(1;11)(p32;q23); KMT2A/EPS15, Following Blinatumomab Therapy. · Du J, Chisholm KM, Tsuchiya K, Leger K, Lee BM, Rutledge JC, Hoffman LM, Xu M · Pediatric and Developmental Pathology 24(4):378-382 2021What this evidence cannot show
Single case report. Clonal identity by immunoglobulin rearrangement tracking shows shared ancestry, not that no genetic change occurred; no sequencing of the switched population is reported. Cited here as an existence proof for the reprogramming mechanism, not as evidence of its frequency.
Evidence that argues against this (1)
- Shared IGH/IGL clonal sequences establish common ancestry and do not distinguish reprogramming of a clone from outgrowth of a pre-existing minor subclone that shared the rearrangement — immunoglobulin rearrangement happens once, early, and is inherited by every descendant including genetically divergent ones. Bulk clonality at three time points cannot separate the two. Leukemia 2021
- E9moderate confidence 3 of 5: One strong study, or several smaller consistent ones.database
Independent query of the public curation of the same PCGP cohort (93 sequenced samples) returns KRAS mutations in 12 samples, NRAS in 8, FLT3 in 5, PIK3CA in 4, PIK3R1 in 3, NF1 in 1 and PTPN11 in none, and a structural-variant profile containing KRAS::KMT2A and RAD51B::KMT2A among 13 distinct KMT2A partner combinations.
cBioPortal for Cancer Genomics, study all_stjude_2015 (Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia, St Jude, Nat Genet 2015) — mutation and structural-variant profiles retrieved via the public REST API on 2026-09-18 · cBioPortal for Cancer Genomics · Database 2026What this evidence cannot show
The 93 samples mix infant KMT2A-r, infant non-KMT2A-r, non-infant KMT2A-r and relapse specimens, so per-gene counts are NOT infant-KMT2A-r frequencies and must not be quoted as such. Curation filters differ from the paper's own tiering, which is the likely source of the PTPN11 discrepancy. Structural-variant records represent detected junctions and both orientations of a reciprocal translocation can appear, so the partner counts are not a measure of reciprocal transcript expression.
Evidence that argues against this (1)
- This re-queries the same 93 PCGP samples, so it is a reproducibility check on one cohort rather than independent confirmation of a low burden, and the 13 distinct KMT2A partner combinations it reports mean the samples are not one disease for the purpose of counting co-mutations. Ensembl, EMBL-EBI 2026
the paediatric prediction rests on the silent infant mutational landscape
a point-mutation count is not a lesion count: the commonest recurrent second lesion here is a copy-number loss
depleted relative to the neighbouring infant leukaemias, which is what a genome needing no second hit should look like
states what was measured behind the claim, with the depths and the detection floors
audits how the 1.3 figure was measured: point mutations only, dominant clone only, 39x floor
a near-silent genome leaves little room for an obligatory second genetic hit
months of latency leaves little time to accumulate cooperating mutations
the quiet-genome data this entry interprets
- ← testsExperiment: does MLL-AF4 transform a staged fetal progenitor when it cannot transform cord blood?
substitution arm asks whether older children's epigenetic-regulator lesions replace fetal context
Genericity counter (Sanz 2016, PMID 27373332): R-loops are prevalent physiological structures occupying up to 5% of mammalian genomes, forming co-transcriptionally at conserved promoter and terminator hotspots - so presence in a blast is uninformative and only enrichment beyond an expression-matched control set could support a fusion-driven landscape
Counter-evidence (Cao 2026, PMID 42637878): the splicing dependency in KMT2A-r leukaemia maps onto conventional RNA-binding proteins - PTBP1 and RBM15 are KMT2A-r-biased AML dependencies and PTBP1 loss dysregulates splicing genome-wide - rather than onto the retained fusion partner
Genericity counter (Bywater 2012, PMID 22789538): increased Pol I transcription of rDNA is 'a common feature of human cancer' and CX-5461 sensitivity across leukaemia and lymphoma lines tracks p53 mutational status rather than genotype or lineage - so a nucleolar dependency in KMT2A::AFF1 lines is predicted by p53 status and proliferation before the fusion is invoked
proposed as the explanation for relapse without accumulating secondary mutations
a second biological argument against borrowing across age
two of four lines are TP53-mutant in a disease that is almost always TP53 wild-type
- ← related toALL-PO (CVCL_1069) — an infant KMT2A::AFF1 line that is already in DepMap and has never been screened
homozygous TP53 R248Q in a line modelling a near-silent genome
the sequencing resource the co-mutation picture rests on
- related to →KMT2A::AFF1 (MLL-AF4), t(4;11)(q21;q23)
one of the quietest genomes in cancer: few escape routes, but also few co-targets
absence from chromocentres is concordant with the quiet-genome phenotype