The menin-dependence test I proposed in the cycle-146 log cannot fire by construction - and what the one pair CAN answer is that 85% of gene-body occupancy is menin-dependent while histone clusters preferentially survive
also called q161 menin dependence · the proposed refutation is unfireable · histone clusters are 48% of occupancy calls · H3C15 is a histone-cluster gene
Last cycle I proposed testing whether the fusion's exclusive target genes need menin, using the one patient in the dataset sampled before and during menin-inhibitor treatment. That test is impossible for a reason built into how the gene list was defined. What the pair can show is that the drug removes most binding - and that what it fails to remove is mostly histone genes, which look like background.
The same thing, for a scientist
🔴 **The refutation I named in the cycle-146 log as "the sharpest attack available" cannot fire.** I proposed testing whether the AFF1-exclusive gene-body class is menin-dependent using GSE252378's one treated/untreated pair, `148752`/`152985`. It fails for two independent reasons and the second is fatal: 1. **The pair is KMT2A-ENL, not KMT2A::AFF1** - which this corpus already records, in an entry whose title says exactly that (`ana-the-infant-menin-inhibitor-occupancy-experiment-exists-and-it-is-kmt2a-enl-not-aff1`). I proposed an experiment the graph had already characterised. 2. **`148752` is one of the 18 non-AFF1 comparators, and the class is defined as occupied in >=3 of 8 AFF1 and 0 of 18 non-AFF1.** So all six class genes are unoccupied in the untreated member **by construction**. **You cannot measure loss from zero.** The script asserts this rather than arguing it: 0 of 6, or it exits [E1]. This is the same failure as a pre-registered branch in an earlier cycle that could not fire because the control pushed the same way as the effect. **A proposed refutation needs its own escape condition checked before it is written into a log as the next step.** 🔵 **What the pair CAN answer, and it is worth having.** Scoring the identical gene-body rule on both aliquots [E2]: | | untreated `148752` | on-treatment `152985` | |---|---:|---:| | gene bodies occupied | **118** (0.608%) | **34** (0.175%) | | retained | - | **18 (15.3%)** | | lost | - | 100 | | gained | - | 16 | | total KMT2A-N fragments | 35,134,948 | 31,128,327 | **84.7% of gene-body occupancy is lost under menin inhibition**, and it is **not a depth artefact** - the treated aliquot retains **88.6%** of the untreated fragment count. **The normalisation actively works against finding a loss**: the within-sample share divides by promoter density, which collapses **2.44-fold** (0.01482 to 0.00608 frag/bp), *inflating* every treated share. A loss was found anyway, so **84.7% is a conservative floor** [E2]. 🟠 **What survives is enriched for histone clusters, and the base rate does not explain it.** 14 of the 18 retained loci are histone-cluster genes. That looked like a base rate at first - 43% of the *lost* set is histone-cluster too - so I measured it: **retention among histone-cluster genes is 24.6% (14/57) against 6.6% (4/61) for everything else, a 3.75-fold difference, permutation p = 0.0064** [E3]. 🔴 **And the incidental finding is the largest one.** Histone-cluster genes are **89 of 19,402 gene bodies (0.5%)** but **57 of 118 untreated occupancy calls (48.3%)** - a **~100-fold over-representation**. **Nearly half of every gene-body occupancy call in this sample is a histone cluster gene**, and they are the loci a menin inhibitor fails to clear [E3]. That bears on every gene-body result in this project - **and it is a property of the rule, not of one sample: across all 27 samples the median is 33.6% (range 0.0-48.3%), pooled 31.3% of 2,980 calls, a 68-fold enrichment, and essentially identical in AFF1 (37.4%) and non-AFF1 (33.3%) samples** [E4]. 🟠 **Including one of its own.** **`H3C15` is a histone-cluster gene and a member of the six-gene AFF1-exclusive class.** It appears in 9 entries, always as a class member, and **nowhere flagged as such**. Q154 independently gave it the **worst margin of the six - 1.01x**, essentially sitting on the threshold. **Two independent reasons to distrust that member**, and they were computed in different beats without meeting.
What this does and does not say about menin
🔵 Says: in the one KMT2A-rearranged case this deposit sampled before and during menin inhibition, the great majority of gene-body oncoprotein occupancy is menin-dependent, and the residual is dominated by loci that behave like background. That is a quantitative version of the published qualitative claim that treatment "reduced the genome-wide MLL N and C terminal signal to undetectable levels" - not undetectable, but 85% gone, with an artefact-flavoured remainder.
🔴 Does not say: anything about KMT2A::AFF1. The pair is ENL. It does not say the AFF1-exclusive class is menin-dependent, which remains untestable in this deposit, and it does not say the class is menin-independent either - this is a NEVER-CHECKED, not a negative.
🟠 n = 1 pair, and the two aliquots are not only treated-versus-untreated. The corpus records them as patient-matched B-ALL at diagnosis and AML respectively, so a lineage or clonal-evolution difference is confounded with the drug. A 3.75-fold retention difference measured across one such pair is a lead, not a result.
🔵 The cheap next step is not another permutation. It is to ask whether the histone over-representation is present in the other 26 samples, which needs no new data and would turn an observation about one aliquot into a property of the instrument.
| script | analyses/q161-menin-dependence-in-the-only-pair/run.py |
|---|---|
| addendum script | analyses/q161-menin-dependence-in-the-only-pair/basrate.py |
| status | run |
| corrects | the cycle-146 king log, which named this test as the sharpest attack available |
pair
{
"untreated": "148752",
"treated": "152985",
"partner": "KMT2A-ENL",
"geo_treated_flag_on_both": true
}proposal cannot fire
{
"class_genes_occupied_in_untreated": 0,
"of": 6,
"reason": "148752 is one of the 18 comparators the class requires to be 0"
}occupancy — the numbers behind the chart
{
"untreated": 118,
"treated": 34,
"retained": 18,
"lost": 100,
"gained": 16,
"pct_lost": 84.7,
"n_gene_bodies": 19402
}not a depth artefact — the numbers behind the chart
{
"fragments_untreated": 35134948,
"fragments_treated": 31128327,
"ratio": 0.886
}normalisation direction
{
"promoter_density_untreated": 0.01482,
"promoter_density_treated": 0.00608,
"collapse_fold": 2.44,
"effect": "inflates treated shares, so the measured loss is a conservative floor"
}histone clusters — the numbers behind the chart
{
"genome_wide": 89,
"of": 19402,
"pct_genome": 0.46,
"in_untreated_occupied": 57,
"of_untreated": 118,
"pct_occupied": 48.3,
"retention_rate_histone_pct": 24.6,
"retention_rate_other_pct": 6.6,
"fold": 3.75,
"perm_p": 0.00635
}flags
{
"H3C15": "a member of the six-gene AFF1-exclusive class is a histone-cluster gene; it appears in 9 entries, always as a class member, never flagged as such, and Q154 independently gave it the worst margin of the six at 1.01x"
}measurements — the numbers behind the chart
[
{
"quantity": "gene-body occupancy lost under menin inhibition in the deposit's only pair",
"value": 84.7,
"unit": "percent",
"subject": "118 occupied untreated vs 34 on-treatment, 18 retained; KMT2A-ENL case, n=1 pair",
"universe": "not a depth artefact (fragment ratio 0.886) and conservative, since the share denominator collapses 2.44-fold and inflates treated values"
},
{
"quantity": "retention advantage of histone-cluster genes under menin inhibition",
"value": 3.75,
"unit": "fold",
"subject": "24.6% of occupied histone-cluster loci retained against 6.6% of all other occupied loci, permutation p 0.0064",
"universe": "histone clusters are 0.5% of 19,402 gene bodies but 48.3% of the 118 untreated occupancy calls"
},
{
"quantity": "share of every gene-body occupancy call that is a histone-cluster gene",
"value": 31.3,
"unit": "percent (pooled over 27 samples)",
"subject": "934 of 2,980 calls; median 33.6% per sample, range 0.0-48.3%",
"universe": "histone-cluster genes are 89 of 19,402 gene bodies (0.46%), so this is a 68-fold enrichment, and it is not partner-specific"
}
]histone across all samples
{
"n_samples": 27,
"table_histone": 89,
"table_total": 19402,
"table_pct": 0.46,
"median_pct_of_calls": 33.6,
"min_pct": 0,
"max_pct": 48.3,
"pooled_histone_calls": 934,
"pooled_total_calls": 2980,
"pooled_pct": 31.3,
"fold_over_table_share": 68,
"aff1_median_pct": 37.4,
"other_median_pct": 33.3,
"not_partner_specific": true
}- Explain the per-sample spread in histone-cluster share, which runs from 0.0% (TB000694) to 48.3% and is not partner-related. Proliferation rate is the obvious candidate since replication-dependent histone transcription tracks S-phase fraction, and it would distinguish a biological signal from a mappability artefact.
- Re-examine H3C15's membership of the AFF1-exclusive class. It is a histone-cluster gene with the worst margin of the six (1.01x) and two beats found those facts separately without either noticing the other.
- Score the KMT2A-C and IgG arms for this pair. That is what would separate 'histone clusters are an artefact of the rule' from 'histone clusters carry menin-independent wild-type MLL1'.
- Re-derive the untreated/treated assignment from the publication rather than inheriting this corpus's reading of a case-level GEO string. Everything in E2 reverses if that reading is backwards.
- E1strong confidence 4 of 5: Replicated in peer-reviewed work by more than one group.journal-article
The proposed test of whether the AFF1-exclusive gene-body class is menin-dependent cannot be run in GSE252378: the only treated/untreated aliquot pair is 148752 and 152985, both annotated KMT2A-ENL, and 148752 is one of the 18 non-AFF1 comparators against which the class is defined as 0-occupied, so all six class members (ELF1, GNAQ, H3C15, IRX1, PAN3, SPAG7) are unoccupied in the untreated aliquot by construction - asserted in code as 0 of 6.
What this evidence cannot show
GEO labels BOTH aliquots 'treated with the Menin inhibitor'; the assignment of 148752 as the at-diagnosis baseline and 152985 as on-treatment is this corpus's own reading of a case-level string, taken from ana-the-infant-menin-inhibitor-occupancy-experiment-exists-and-it-is-kmt2a-enl-not-aff1, and was not re-derived from the publication this session. If that reading were reversed the direction of E2 would invert, though E1's by-construction argument would be unaffected.
Evidence that argues against this (1)
- The unfireability is a property of THIS class definition, not of the question. A differently defined class - for example one requiring occupancy in >=3 AFF1 samples without requiring 0 in comparators - would be testable in the pair. The honest statement is that exclusivity and menin-dependence cannot be tested on the same gene set here, not that menin-dependence is untestable.
- E2moderate confidence 3 of 5: One strong study, or several smaller consistent ones.journal-article
Applying the identical gene-body occupancy rule to both aliquots of the one pair, 118 of 19,402 gene bodies are occupied in the untreated 148752 (0.608%) against 34 in the on-treatment 152985 (0.175%), with 18 retained, 100 lost and 16 gained - a 84.7% loss that is not attributable to sequencing depth, since the treated aliquot carries 31,128,327 KMT2A-N fragments against 35,134,948 (ratio 0.886), and which is conservative because the within-sample share denominator, promoter density, collapses 2.44-fold from 0.01482 to 0.00608 frag/bp and therefore inflates treated shares.
What this evidence cannot show
n = 1 pair. The two aliquots are recorded in this corpus as patient-matched B-ALL at diagnosis and AML respectively, so lineage and clonal evolution are confounded with the drug and this cannot be attributed to menin inhibition alone. The 16 'gained' calls are unexplained and are most likely noise at a collapsed denominator. The KMT2A-C and IgG arms were not scored for this pair. The promoter density collapse is itself a global-signal-loss measurement and is reported because it sets the direction of the bias, not as an independent result.
Evidence that argues against this (2)
- A collapsing normalisation denominator makes the whole comparison fragile in both directions, not just the conservative one. If promoter density falls because the drug removes promoter signal, then the denominator is part of the effect being measured, and a ratio whose denominator is itself an outcome is not a clean measure of anything - this corpus has recorded that failure mode for a different ratio built to cancel a confound.
- Nothing here separates 'menin inhibition evicts the fusion' from 'the on-treatment aliquot is a different, largely non-leukaemic cell population'. A drug that kills blasts changes what is in the tube, and a 85% drop in occupancy calls is equally consistent with a purity change.
- E3moderate confidence 3 of 5: One strong study, or several smaller consistent ones.journal-article
Histone-cluster genes are 89 of 19,402 scored gene bodies (0.5%) but 57 of the 118 occupancy calls in the untreated aliquot (48.3%), a roughly 100-fold over-representation; and they preferentially survive menin inhibition, with a retention rate of 24.6% (14 of 57) against 6.6% (4 of 61) for all other occupied loci, a 3.75-fold difference with a permutation p of 0.0064 against the null that the retained set is a random draw from the untreated occupied set.
What this evidence cannot show
Histone-cluster membership is assigned by symbol prefix (H1-, H2A, H2B, H3C, H4C, H3-), which is a regex over names rather than a curated locus list and will mis-assign any gene whose symbol happens to start that way. The permutation tests only whether the retained set is a random draw from the untreated occupied set; it does not test whether histone clusters are enriched among occupied loci in the first place, which is stated as a raw ratio and not as a p-value. n = 1 pair throughout.
Evidence that argues against this (2)
- Histone gene clusters are short, extremely highly transcribed, replication-dependent and sit in dense repetitive arrays - all properties that inflate coverage-based occupancy scores independently of any oncoprotein. Their over-representation may be entirely a mappability and transcription artefact, in which case this says nothing about menin and everything about the rule, which is arguably the more useful reading.
- Conversely, MLL1 has genuine biology at histone loci and the NSL/MOF complex acts there, so preferential retention could be real wild-type MLL1 activity that the menin inhibitor does not touch - the KMT2A-N antibody sees fusion and wild-type together. Distinguishing artefact from wild-type MLL1 needs the KMT2A-C arm, which was not scored here.
- E4strong confidence 4 of 5: Replicated in peer-reviewed work by more than one group.journal-article
The histone-cluster over-representation is a property of the gene-body rule rather than of one sample: across all 27 GSE252378 samples, histone-cluster genes are 89 of 19,402 scored gene bodies (0.46%) but a median 33.6% of per-sample occupancy calls (range 0.0% to 48.3%), and pooled across samples 934 of 2,980 calls (31.3%) - a 68-fold enrichment over their share of the table. The effect is not partner-specific: median 37.4% in the 8 KMT2A::AFF1 samples against 33.3% in the other 19.
What this evidence cannot show
Histone-cluster membership is assigned by symbol prefix (H1-, H2A, H2B, H3C, H4C, H3-), a regex over names rather than a curated locus list. The per-sample spread is very wide - TB000694 has 0 of 54 calls and A80956 7 of 103, against 48.3% at the top - and that spread is unexplained here; depth, chromatin quality and blacklist overlap were not tested as explanations. The pooled 31.3% weights samples by their call count, so it is dominated by the high-call samples.
Evidence that argues against this (2)
- A 68-fold enrichment is not automatically an artefact. Histone gene clusters are genuine MLL1 and NSL/MOF territory, and the KMT2A-N antibody sees wild-type MLL1 alongside the fusion, so a real wild-type signal would look exactly like this. Separating the two needs the KMT2A-C arm, which is not scored here.
- The variance across samples argues against a pure mappability artefact, which should be roughly constant per library. A range from 0.0% to 48.3% suggests something sample-specific - proliferation rate would be the obvious candidate, since replication-dependent histone transcription tracks S-phase fraction - and that is a biological explanation this analysis did not test.
quantifies the pair that entry characterises; 85% loss, not undetectable
the class q158 validated cannot be tested for menin dependence in this deposit
H3C15, a class member, is a histone-cluster gene and histone clusters behave like background
48.3% of those calls are histone-cluster genes, which are 0.5% of the table
answers q161s named next step with the C and IgG arms
the 31% histone share is the leading candidate explanation for the 42% overlap